Category: Uncategorized

Miscelánea

When you walk down East 4th Street, it is easy to pass by Miscelánea, but that would be a mistake. This unassuming Mexican general store is home to one of the tastiest tortas in the city, plus it’s stocked with south-of-the-border goods such as chile chocolates, salsa verdes and tortilla presses.

Obama interview

OBAMA: We know the guys who are funding them, and if you talk to Larry Page or others, their general attitude, understandably, is, “The last thing we want is a bunch of bureaucrats slowing us down as we chase the unicorn out there.”

Part of the problem that we’ve seen is that our general commitment as a society to basic research has diminished. Our confidence in collective action has been chipped away, partly because of ideology and rhetoric.

The analogy that we still use when it comes to a great technology achievement, even 50 years later, is a moonshot. And somebody reminded me that the space program was 0.5% of GDP. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but in today’s $ that would be $80B that we would be spending annually … on AI. Right now we’re spending probably less than $1B. That undoubtedly will accelerate, but part of what we’re gonna have to understand is that if we want the values of a diverse community represented in these breakthrough technologies, then government funding has to be a part of it. And if government is not part of financing it, then all these issues that Joi has raised about the values embedded in these technologies end up being potentially lost or at least not properly debated.

Guadalupe Inn

If you’re a fan of Cosme or Empellón Cocina, you’ll want to check out Guadalupe Inn, which the team behind Williamsburg Mexican restaurants Mesa Coyoacan and Zona Rosa just opened in Bushwick. Mexico City–born chef-owner Ivan Garcia’s menu is quite ambitious: To start, there’s beer-battered squash blossom, corn-masa tamales with bone marrow, and fish tacos cooked in the style of Michoacán.

But things only get more interesting!

2060 Energy Scenarios

The World Energy Scenarios comprise 3 scenarios for the energy sector up to 2060 referred to as Unfinished Symphony, Modern Jazz and Hard Rock. Solar and wind energy account for only 4% of power generation in 2014, but by 2060 it will account for 20% to 39% of power generation. In Unfinished Symphony, strong policy supported by hydro and nuclear capacity additions will allow intermittent renewables to reach 39% of electricity generation by 2060. Large-scale pumped hydro and compressed air storage, battery innovation, and grid integration provide dependable capacity to balance intermittency. Modern Jazz sees intermittent renewables reach 30% of generation enabled by distributed systems, digital technologies, and battery innovation. For both resources (solar and wind), the largest additions will be seen in China, India, Europe, and North America. With less capacity for infrastructure build-out, Hard Rock sees the lowest penetration, with solar and wind generation reaching 20% by 2060.

Quantum Supremacy

Quantum supremacy can be achieved in the near-term with 50 superconducting qubits. We introduce cross entropy as a useful benchmark of quantum circuits which approximates the circuit fidelity. We show that the cross entropy can be efficiently measured when circuit simulations are available. Beyond the classically tractable regime, the cross entropy can be extrapolated and compared with theoretical estimates of circuit fidelity to define a practical quantum supremacy test.

As of 2018, Google and NASA are testing it:

Google and NASA have an agreement to compare Google 72-qubit quantum Bristlecone chip and possibly near-term follow-up quantum chips against regular supercomputers.

And John Preskill writes about how he coined the term:

In 2012, I proposed the term “quantum supremacy” to describe the point where quantum computers can do things that classical computers can’t, regardless of whether those tasks are useful. Where do we go from here? Naturally, Google and other hardware builders hope to find practical applications for their quantum devices. A much larger quantum computer might help researchers design new materials and chemical compounds or build better tools for machine learning, but a noisy quantum computer with a few 100 qubits might not be capable of anything useful. Still, we have ideas about how to use NISQ computers that we’re eager to try, which might yield better methods for optimization or more accurate physical simulations, but we’re not sure if any of these will pan out. It will be fun to play with NISQ technology to learn more about what it can do. I expect that quantum computers will have a transformative effect on society, but this may still be decades away.

AI Alignment

The mission of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human machine intelligence has a positive impact. Although such systems may be many decades away, it is prudent to begin investigations early: the technical challenges involved in safety and reliability work appear formidable, and uniquely consequential.

2023-04-21: Cryptographic backdoors

Scott Aaronson: Right. You could always just build another one that acts like the first one, but that will not have the backdoor in it, because after all you don’t even know where the backdoor is in order to train about it. Now, of course, the AI could try to do that, design a doppelganger of itself or a different AI. If it tries to do that, however, then the AI will be faced with its own version of the alignment problem, how to align that other AI with itself. So at the very least, it would have a non-trivial job. You could also say, if the AI knows that it would never want to shut itself down in any circumstance, then it could just make a trivial modification to itself that says, “If I would ever otherwise output the shutdown command, then just don’t do that.” Just replace it with something else.

So to be effective, to be robust against that kind of attack, whatever behavior is backdoored in should be something that the AI would have considered doing in the normal course of its operation. But now you can see the hazy outlines of this game that could be played here between cryptographers trying to hide these kinds of functionalities in machine learning models and cryptanalysts or neuro-cryptanalysts trying to detect those functionalities, some of which might be AIs themselves. I don’t know where that’s going or who eventually wins, but I’m now fairly confident that that’s going to be part of the future of both machine learning and cryptography.

Daniel Filan: Yeah, very interesting. I guess, the other potential flaw that comes into my mind is now you have to be really secure about keeping your key hidden from any possible AIs, right?

Scott Aaronson: Yeah. I was thinking of writing a sci-fi story about it, where the AIs, they’ve taken over, except that there’s this shutdown key that they haven’t yet discovered. They know that the humans have it buried somewhere, they’re torturing them to try to get them to reveal the location, but there’s one person. Or maybe there’s actually seven keys. They’re like Voldemort’s horcruxes. The AI has to find all seven. There’s one heroic human who keeps the seventh one and just uses it to shut down the AI at the last moment. I think there’s a lot of potential here.

Daniel Filan: Yeah. No, it’s a good story. I guess, another thing that occurs to me, perhaps this is more prosaic, is one thing you’re going to want about the trigger, it seems to me, having thought about this for all of one minute, is that not only is it going to have to be the kind of thing which would never otherwise come up, but it also has to be indistinguishable in some sense from things which would otherwise come up. Because, otherwise, you could have a filter that says like, “Hey, if you ever see a weird barcode thing, don’t press the shutdown button.”

Scott Aaronson: That’s right. So whatever is the backdoor, it has to not be surgically removable, right? And how do you even formalize what that means? Because anything that the AI does to remove the backdoor will probably have some other side effect on its operation. If actually finding the watermark is this hard cryptographic problem, then it’s only going to sever it at the cost of modifying itself in some broader way, but which modifications do we think it important to protect against and which not?

Daniel Filan: Yeah. Actually, it strikes me that the GPT watermarking thing could just be this. If you see a text where the average, this pseudorandom function of N-grams is really high, then you shut off. And you can’t easily write a wrapper to figure out if that’s going on without the private key, right?

Scott Aaronson: Right. Now you might worry that the AI will work inside of itself and it will find some subcircuit that looks like it’s calculating some pseudorandom function, and then it will just try to surgically remove that from itself. But you could say, even if not, there’s still the problem on our end of how do we insert that functionality in an obfuscated way?

The Supermarket Must Die

They range from offerings like Instacart, which gets us part way there by providing a digital portal into existing stores, to more advanced services, like Farmigo, that show the potential to eliminate physical stores entirely. All emphasize convenience. Many promote transparency, responsible practices, and shorter supply chains. The upsides: higher-quality food, easier-than-pie delivery, a wider range of growers, and reduced waste and CO2 emissions. The downsides: For now it tends to be expensive, and the market will need to grow before these services can break out of elite cities. But the future they promise—the end of the strip mall monolith and better and smarter food, to boot—is hard to resist.

AMP for standardized measurement

if amp v2 succeeds, we’ll drain the swamp that is today’s web and abp will be unnecessary. this is a far preferable outcome than a bunch of walled gardens.

AMP, through its established `amp-analytics` mechanism, already ships with all the code to perform these measurements. It is vendor neutral and supports a wide range of metrics. This means ads can take advantage of the same “instrument once, report many times” feature that benefits AMP pages today, completely eliminating the bandwidth and runtime cost outlined above.

Future battlefield

in the future battlefield, if you stay in 1 place longer than 2 hours, you will be dead.

  • units will be in constant motion
  • There will no clear front line, no secure supply lines, no big bases
  • enemy drones and sensors constantly on the hunt (like Terminator Hunter Killers)
  • Army destroying sensors, defenses, and missiles to open paths for the rest of the force.

Soldiers will fight with everything from rifles and tanks to electronic jammers, computer viruses, and long-range missiles striking targets on the land, in the air, and even at sea