Tag: ubi

End of work questions

Just 64.2% of adults were either in a job or actively looking for one, representing the lowest participation rate in 25 years.

At the same link you will see evidence that the number is likely to decline. Some women are less eager to work, some men are quitting the search for work, and there is a general aging of the population. Fewer students work while they are in school. Here are further links to future projections. That’s hardly the end of work but one thing dramatic recessions can do is to reveal new pieces of information. By overturning the table, we (sometimes) see which pieces of the puzzle did not fit in the first place. 1 result of this recession is that we will revise downwards our estimate of the labor force participation rate, both current and future. A few questions are:

  1. What is the political economy of a world where so few people work?
  2. What kind of low-rent areas will evolve to accommodate some of these people?
  3. Will we in fact move to some form of a guaranteed annual income?

Note that the answer to #2 will affect the feasibility of #3.

the comments are in denial. no suggestions of creating permanent disneylands to keep the unemployable happy.

Job Automation

By 2030, what kinds of capabilities will computers have; how well will those capabilities prepare them to do jobs currently done by humans; and what proportion of the workforce might be displaced or rendered unemployable? The results are rather scary. After looking at trends in machine vision, speech, reasoning, and movement, and estimating how important these are for doing various kinds of work, the author estimates that displacement rates could be over 80% in some fields– sales, administrative support, food preparation, and personal care. These are also the sectors that employ the largest number of people. The safest fields for humans? Law (6%), medicine (10%), science (10%), and engineering (11%)– fields which currently employ the smallest number of people.

ha! the sectors of the economy that are just adding transaction cost but not creating anything will be replaced by computers by > 80%. invest in warm bodies at your own peril.

Buying Jobs

Let’s say that the world is so wealthy that most people don’t need to work. Still they might be bored. They might want to work. What kinds of jobs could they buy? Under one view, the resulting jobs would always feel phony. The customers/laborers would never fear being fired. They would never have to try very hard, or could never feel that the enterprise really mattered. You might, for instance, buy a job as a blogger.

considering that technological change will get us there pretty quickly, the comments are pretty inane

Complementary currencies

There are now more than 4000 communities around the world that have started their own currency for social purposes as well. For example, there are 400 private currency systems in Japan to pay for any care for the elderly that isn’t covered by the national health insurance. They are called fureai kippu (caring relationship tickets). Here’s how they work: On my street lives an elderly gentleman who is handicapped and cannot go shopping for himself. I do the shopping for him. I help him with food preparation. I help him with the ritual bath, which is very important in Japan. For this help, I get credits. I put those credits in a savings account, and when I’m sick, I can have other people provide such services for me. Or I can electronically send my credits to my mother, who lives on the other side of the country, and somebody takes care of her. Here is an agreement within a community to use as medium of payment something other than national currencies, to solve a social problem. And it makes it possible for 100Ks of people to stay in their homes much longer than they otherwise could. Otherwise, you’d have to put most of these people into a home for seniors, which costs an arm and a leg to society, and they’re unhappy there. So nobody’s winning. In contrast, Japan has created a currency for elderly care.

if you want to invest into an alternative currency, try etoy.SHARES.