Tag: selfdriving

Transportation-as-a-Service

any discussion of the threat self-driving cars poses to Uber tends to imagine a world where there are magically 10Ks if not millions of self-driving cars everywhere immediately. That simply isn’t practical from a pure logistics standpoint; the time it will take to build all of those cars — and, crucially, get government approval — is time Uber has to catch up.

Moreover, it’s not at all clear that Google will be willing to make the sort of investment necessary to build a self-driving fleet that could take on Uber. The company’s recent scale-back of Google Fiber is instructive in this regard: it is very difficult for a company built on search advertising margins to stomach the capital costs entailed in building out a fleet capable of challenging Uber in more than 1 or 2 markets.

Finally, as the incumbent in the transportation-as-a-service space Uber has the advantage of only needing to be good-enough. To the degree the company can build out UberPool and UberCommute, they can ensure that their own self-driving cars get first consideration from consumers trained to open their app whenever they are out and about.

Networked robotic transportation

All of these robotic vehicles are largely disconnected or they are using their own proprietary means of networking their activity. In order for robotic transportation to explode, it will need a simple protocol for coordinating this network in a decentralized way. Once this scalable decentralized standard is developed, it will do for air, sea, land, and undersea transportation what the Internet did for the movement of data and in about the same amount of time.

Drivers are getting worse

Until sometime in the early 2000s, the US had fewer traffic fatalities per km traveled than most developed countries. That’s changed. If we’re measuring by road traffic deaths per 100K people, the US is currently ranked 17th out of 29 high-income nations for which data is available.

great news for self-driving cars: humans are getting worse at driving, so the bar is getting lower and lower.

Routinely breaking the law

While some people like to imagine that important ethical questions for robocars revolve around choosing who to kill in an accident, that’s actually an extremely rare event. The real ethical issues revolve around this issue of how to drive when driving involves routinely breaking the law — not once in a 100 lifetimes, but once every minute. Or once every second, as is the case in India.