Tag: policy

Peak Water

With water privatization, maybe the waste in places like Las Vegas can be curtailed?
2007-10-22:

N.A.W.A.P.A. is nothing less than the hydrological fantasy project of a certain class of US water engineers. In fact, Reisner talles us, N.A.W.A.P.A. would “solve at one stroke all the West’s problems with water” – but it would also take “a $6-trillion economy” to pay for it, and “it might require taking Canada by force.” He quips that British Columbia “is to water what Russia is to land,” and so N.A.W.A.P.A., if realized, would tap those unexploited natural waterways and bring them down south to fill the cups of Uncle Sam.

The coming water war in the US is drawing closer.
2007-11-12:

Perdue isn’t the first governor to hold a call for public prayer during the epic drought gripping the Southeast. Alabama Gov. Bob Riley issued a proclamation declaring a week in July as “Days of Prayer for Rain” to “humbly ask for His blessings and to hold us steady in times of difficulty.”

Tools. If they had raised water prices sufficiently to stop people washing their SUVs, they would not have to humiliate themselves now.
2008-04-23:

Pretty good, but why don’t they come out and say that the southwest of the US is fucked? I guess that would not go down well with their sophomoric “gadget guy” audience.
2008-06-06:

In California, building projects are being curtailed for the first time under state law by the inability of developers to find long-term water supplies.

It begins.
2008-07-19: Price water properly, and the scourge of Las Vegas will get swallowed by the desert, as it should be. Instead, the failed policies of the oil shock era are being repeated.

Nixon made the OPEC oil shocks worse by capping prices and using coercive government tools to reduce demand. This is exactly what California is doing with water. Demand exceeds supply. The price to users is too low.

It would be simpler to let water prices rise to a market-clearing price. This would quickly reduce aquifer overdrafts, while leaving sufficient water to support ecosystems and the species they support. It would also mean that most Californians would see prices increase a lot.

2010-09-26:

There’s no black magic going on here, just basic math. Part of the problem is an ongoing 12-year drought that’s limiting inflow from snow melt in the Rockies. But, as seen throughout Lake Mead’s history, droughts come and go. The really worrying issue here is on the demand side. Decades of population growth have led to increased water demand in the Southwest. Take, for instance, Las Vegas, which gets 90% of its water from Lake Mead.

2011-12-14: Las Vegas and similar places have always been an abomination. With the water gone, this will become clear even to the dullest defender of sprawl.

Drought affects people differently from other disasters. After something terrible happens – tornados, earthquakes, hurricanes – people regularly come together in memorable ways, rising above the things that divide them. In a drought, however, what is terrible is that nothing happens. By the time you know you’re in one, you’ve already had an extended opportunity to meditate on the shortcomings of your neighbors. You wait for what does not arrive. You thirst. You never experience the rush of compassion that helps you behave well. Drought brings out the worst in us.

2012-07-31: All that constantly washing your car / sprinkling your pointless lawn / fountains in Vegas shit is coming down hard. I wonder if the massive relocation and water rationing can happen without a civil war.

The chronic drought that hit western North America from 2000 to 2004 left dying forests and depleted river basins in its wake and was the strongest in 800 years. Those conditions will become the “new normal” for most of the coming century.

2012-09-15:

“Recent droughts in the mid-western United States threaten to cause global catastrophe. We are on the verge of another crisis, the third in 5 years, and likely to be the worst yet, capable of causing new food riots and turmoil on a par with the Arab Spring.”

2014-05-10:

Representatives from the US and Mexico agreed to a complex, multi-part water deal that will give them desperately needed flexibility for weathering the drought. More surprisingly, the 2 nations will join the team of environmental organizations to release a flood of 130b liters of water into the Delta’s ancient floodplain, and chase it with a smaller, permanent annual flow to sustain the ecosystem.

2015-01-07: What happens when the water table disappears. California hasn’t seen anything yet.

Only this isn’t the way the water went dry in Fairmead. No disrespect to the reverend, but the way it went dry is that 1 day last June, Annie Cooper was looking outside her kitchen window at another orchard of nuts going into the ground. This one was being planted right across the street. Before the trees even arrived, the big grower — no one from around here seems to know his name — turned on the pump to test his new deep well, and it was at that precise moment, when the water in his plowed field gushed like flood time, that the Coopers’ house went dry.

The kitchen faucet, the fancy bathtub, the washing machine, the toilet — all drew back into themselves. A last burble. Their old domestic well, sitting 85m deep, could no longer reach the plummeting aquifer, could no longer compete with the new farm wells sunk 100s of m deeper.

2015-02-12:

between 2050 and 2100, droughts in the Southwest and Great Plains will become more severe than the megadroughts of the 12th and 13th centuries that wiped out the Pueblo Indians

2015-03-14: Let’s see whether California gets real, and innovates itself out of this situation. The alternatives are terrible.

Right now the state has only about one year of water supply left in its reservoirs, and our strategic backup supply, groundwater, is rapidly disappearing. California has no contingency plan for a persistent drought like this one (let alone a 20-plus-year mega-drought), except, apparently, staying in emergency mode and praying for rain.

In short, we have no paddle to navigate this crisis.

2017-05-07:

Bangalore has a problem: It is running out of water, fast. Cities all over the world, from those in the American West to nearly every major Indian metropolis, have been struggling with drought and water deficits in recent years. But Bangalore is an extreme case. Last summer, a professor from the Indian Institute of Science declared that the city will be unlivable by 2020. “The projections are relatively correct. Our groundwater levels are approaching 0.”

2015-05-11: Agriculture are water criminals

While California Is Dying Of Thirst so it’s good to see a summary that’s a lot better researched: if we wanted to buy out all alfalfa growers by paying them their usual yearly income to just sit around and not grow any alfalfa, that would cost $860m per year and free up 5.3t liter, ie pretty much our entire shortfall of 6t liter, thus solving the drought

2018-08-23:

Besides California, the other American place in water jeopardy is the High Plains, which sits on top of an aquifer called the Ogallala. The Ogallala is sometimes described as an ocean of groundwater. One of the largest known aquifers in the world, it runs from South Dakota to Texas, more or less in the shape of a monkey wrench. Near the top, in places, it is 300m deep, and at the lower end, in places, there are areas where it is as shallow as 1m. The Dust Bowl, which played out above the Ogallala, was, in a way, a period phenomenon. All the water necessary to sustain the crops that now cover the plains was always there, but 1m deeper than Depression-era farmers could reach with windmill pumps. Electric pumps, which only became widespread by the end of the thirties, made it accessible. For decades farmers thought the Ogallala was inexhaustible. By 1975 the amount of water taken each year from the aquifer equaled the flow of the Colorado River, and now the annual draw is ~18x that amount. Farmers have been pumping out 1-2m a year in places where 1cm is being added. As far as continuing to be useful, the Ogallala might be exhausted by 2070. A reasonable estimate is that it would take 6 ka for rain to replenish it.

2019-06-18:

During the summer, the Midwest will see drought conditions similar to what California, Greece, or Italy have. A mediterranean climate seems nice, as a concept: temperate winters and warm, dry summers, guaranteed to get you an even tan. If you’re a farmer trying to grow corn it means something very different: You need more water. Because the warmer the air is, the more water plants require.

Declaration in defense of Science and Secularism

We are deeply concerned about the ability of the United States to confront the many challenges it faces, both at home and abroad. Our concern has been compounded by the failure exhibited by far too many Americans, including influential decision-makers, to understand the nature of scientific inquiry and the integrity of empirical research. This disdain for science is aggravated by the excessive influence of religious doctrine on our public policies.

this one ought to be shouted from the rooftops

Prediction Markets

Internet gambling is good for consumers. Too bad America wants to ban it

The spread of the internet has made the online gambler king. The emergence of large online gambling companies has slashed gaming operators’ margins and driven up payout ratios for gamblers. And the punters have embraced it in their millions, especially in America, where illegal gambling has long flourished. Last year 12m Americans placed about $6b in online bets, 50% the world’s total. You might have hoped politicians would greet such a demonstration of popularity with moderation—welcoming online gambling’s benefits and curbing its inevitable excesses. Instead they have put all their chips on red. Last weekend Congress passed a bill that will stop banks making payments to online gambling sites, adding to an already formidable legislative arsenal that outlaws most online gaming.

congress just killed a golden goose.
2006-12-03: uh crap i would have LOVED to attend this one. prediction markets is one of my permathreads.
2007-01-30: performance matters for betting markets too. to get even faster you’d have to factor out the humans clicking the buttons, but i guess that would require betting to grow up from being entertainment.
2007-04-24:

The key drivers in both filtering and consensus making in such systems is often positive feedback. For Digg, good stories get “dug” which makes them more likely to be seen and dug further. Poor stories do not get dug, rank lower, are less likely to be dug and slowly disappear. In ant trails, pheromone deposition stimulates further deposition if the food source really is good. Perhaps software developers should be given a cache of tokens. They can give the manager of a project 2 tokens each day if they think the project worth continuing. The manager can hire a programmer for the day [for 1 token] if he has enough tokens. Thus, crappy projects soon get filtered out by consensus. [The 2 vs 1 token prevents too much fluidity in the project and damps some random fluctuations].

2007-12-06:

In a new book, “Imperfect Knowledge Economics”, Mr Frydman sets out an alternative approach to prediction, in which the forecaster recognizes that his model will inevitably be less than perfect. Their work has received glowing praise from Nobel-prize-winning economists such as Kenneth Arrow and Edmund Phelps, who wrote the introduction to the book—though it is unlikely to have gone down so well with Robert Lucas, who won the Nobel for his work on rational expectations.

2008-01-07:

Despite the markets’ strong forecasting abilities, there is a slight optimistic bias driven mainly by new employees. On average, outcomes that were good for Google were overpriced by 20%. This bias was strongest on days after appreciations in Google stock and, ironically, for outcomes under our own control! We also find biases against extreme outcomes and short selling. Given a range of 5 outcomes, the middle ones were typically overpriced and unprofitable by comparison with the outliers.

hmm, i must have slept through that one.
2021-04-21:

are prediction markets doomed to repeat errors as grave as giving Trump a 15% chance of overturning the election in early December, and a 12% chance of overturning it even after the Supreme Court including 3 judges whom he appointed telling him to screw off? My answer is, surprisingly, an emphatic yes, and I see a few reasons for optimism.

2022-02-09:

In 2010, Philip Tetlock (one of the signatories on the pro-prediction market letter) did some pretty basic forecasting work, not even prediction market level, and proved that he could significantly outperform top analysts at the CIA with access to classified information. The government refused to hire him or use any of his methods, and continued shutting down new prediction markets as they arose. Polymarket is probably the biggest prediction market currently available. US law considers unlicensed prediction markets to be somewhere between illegal gambling and illegal futures trading, ie definitely illegal. The US is becoming the North Korea of forecasting. Every other civilized country allows prediction markets. In a perfect world, they could ignore our constant own goals and move on without us. But because America has a disproportionate share of money, users, coders, and entrepreneurs, a US-less prediction market ecosystem won’t be living up to its potential. That means decreased ability to gather and process information and worse decision-making worldwide.