I’m not sure that freewill, if it exists, requires any immeasurable quantum mechanical mumbo jumbo. The magic is not in any quantum mechanical phenomena inside the neurons, but in the standard physics arrangement of them.
More likely, the appearance of free will is result of the inability to perform 100% introspection into one’s own mind. I can no more “understand” the real-time machinations of my own mind than a Pentium processor can run a real-time simulation of its own transistors. Because I can’t perfectly introspect my subconscious, much of its output looks magically non-deterministic (hence the seeming similarity to quantum mechanical systems).
Any bounded-rational being would believe itself to have freewill based on its ability to take independent actions and its inability to introspect out all the causal factors underpinning its own actions. In reality, the system that creates intelligence can be 100% deterministic, just too complex for that intelligence to understand itself. Only a much more powerful intelligence could look down and see that these beings that think they have free will are actually operating on “simple” rules.
2007-03-23: Selecting for Gay Pagan Babies. Delicious logical quandaries.
Would the selection rob the child of free will? I don’t think so. What is being set is parts of personality traits, not the thoughts or reactions of the emerging person. They will bias and affect the thoughts, but no more and no less than any other personality traits. That these ones were selected does not give the parents more control over the child or predetermine its destiny. A theological argument against would be that God would make sure to give the right genome, and that parents should trust God to do it right. But if that is true, then God seems to like gays too.
2009-04-16: Strong Free Will Theorem. If indeed we humans have free will, then elementary particles already have their own small share of this valuable commodity. 2014-10-03: The free-will fix
New brain implants can restore autonomy to damaged minds, but can they settle the question of whether free will exists? If free will could be safely enhanced, would those with strengthened capacities be held to a higher standard?
We tend to take it for granted that conscious thoughts precede our actions. Indeed, our systems of morality, justice and moral responsibility are based on the notion that people are free to make thoughtful decisions. However, the US scientist Benjamin Libet’s groundbreaking 1980s experiments on the relationship between brain activity, conscious thoughts and physical actions caused some scientists and philosophers to rethink the concept of ‘free will’ and ask whether our decisions are made subconsciously before we’re even aware of them.
Quantum computing theorist, popular author, blogger, and scientist Scott Aaronson on the #MeaningOfLife, Enlightenment, Schrodinger, Heisenberg, the Matrix, balancing work and family, and why the universe is not just a simulation.
The Magnifying Transmitter produced thunder which was heard from his lab as far away as Cripple Creek. He becomes the first man to create electrical effects on the scale of lightning by creating bolts 42 meters in length. People near the lab would observe sparks emitting from the ground to their feet and through their shoes. Some people observed electrical spark from the fire hydrants. The area around the laboratory would glow with a plasmic blue corona. One of Tesla’s experiment with the Magnifying Transmitter destroyed Colorado Springs Electric Company’s generator, by back feeding the city’s power generators, and blacked out the city.
Watching the mummy returns reminded me of an article i had read some time ago, arguably one of the scariest i ever read. it talks about the problem of marking a site as dangerous for 10 ka into the future.
These standing stones mark an area used to bury radioactive wastes. The area is … by … kilometers and the buried waste is … kilometers down. This place was chosen to put this dangerous material far away from people. The rock and water in this area may not look, feel, or smell unusual but may be poisoned by radioactive wastes. When radioactive matter decays, it gives off invisible energy that can destroy or damage people, animals, and plants.
Do not drill here. Do not dig here. Do not do anything that will change the rocks or water in the area.
Do not destroy this marker. This marking system has been designed to last 10 ka. If the marker is difficult to read, add new markers in longer-lasting materials in languages that you speak. For more information go to the building further inside. The site was known as the WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant) site when it was closed in …
2006-10-16: Well-researched Thorium piece, but Michael needs to become more concise: he repeats himself too much in this piece.
Sometime between 2020 and 2030, we will invent a practically unlimited energy source that will solve the global energy crisis. This unlimited source of energy will come from thorium. A summary of the benefits, from a recent announcement of the start of construction for a new prototype reactor:
There is no danger of a melt-down like the Chernobyl reactor.
It produces minimal radioactive waste.
It can burn plutonium waste from traditional nuclear reactors.
It is not suitable for the production of weapon grade materials.
Global thorium reserves could cover our energy needs for 1000s of years.
The new reactor, which is only 7m x 2m, could change everything for a group of neighbors who are fed up with the power companies and want more control over their energy needs.
2008-05-22: Why bother with oil-based stuff when you can have distributed nuclear energy with Uranium hydride batteries? 2008-07-24: Uranium Deep Burn
It is projected that volumes of high-level waste could be reduced by a factor of 50, while extra electricity is generated.
Besides the low amount of waste and almost complete burning of all Uranium and Plutonium, another big advantage of liquid fluoride reactors is fast and safe shutoff and restart capability. This fast stop and restart allows for load following electricity generation. This means a different electric utility niche can be addressed other than just baseload power for nuclear power. Currently natural gas is the primary load following power source. Wind and solar are intermittent in that they generate power at unreliable times. LFTR would be reliable on demand power.
Fuck ethanol. Lets have some 21st century nuclear power
Thorium is one of the victims of the brainless scare campaign against nuclear that has infected most western nations over the last 30 years. Instead of doing silly stunts like the germans, whose “exit” from nuclear energy will mean more coal plants being built, an enlightened nation would chose thorium.
Instead, we are stuck with aging reactors (how does that make anyone safer?) and scientific illiteracy both in the general population and elected representatives.
I’m generally dismayed how little discussion about thorium there is in energy circles.
Kirk Sorensen provides an update on the current state of thorium power. The bad news is that it still remains mostly theoretical concept; no operational reactor has been deployed yet — even as a prototype. However, new thorium nuclear molten salt experiments were just started in Europe. We have good “line of sight” on the science to build one — so, at this point, the limiting factor is mostly funding. In a world of privately-funded space travel, such a gating obstacle shouldn’t remain for long. 4 specific difficulties have been mentioned:
Salts can be corrosive to materials.
Designing for high-temperature operation is more difficult
There has been little innovation in the field for several decades
The differences between LFTRs and the light water reactors in majority use today are vast; the former “is not yet fully understood by regulatory agencies and officials.”
Andrew Yang has proposed a nuclear subsidy—$50B over 5 years
he is pro-nuclear and has a deep understanding of all the technical issues around energy. Real change from the Bush administration in selecting extreme competence. It is not in any way a guarantee of correct energy choices because there is still political reality.
At stake is the 100s of billions spent on meaningless levels of “safety” around nuclear power plants and waste storage, the projected costs of next-generation nuclear plant designs to reduce greenhouse gases worldwide, and the extremely harmful episodes of public panic that accompany rare radiation-release events like Fukushima and Chernobyl. (No birth defects whatever were caused by Chernobyl, but fear of them led to 100K panic abortions in the Soviet Union and Europe. What people remember about Fukushima is that nuclear opponents predicted that 100s or 1000s would die or become ill from the radiation. In fact nobody died, nobody became ill, and nobody is expected to.) 2014-02-14: You can power the world for 72 years with the nuclear waste that exists today, at a price cheaper than coal. Of course it will likely not happen due to collusion between the coal industry and the fear industrial complex.
China approved 2 reactors this month as it vowed to cut coal use to meet terms of a CO2-emissions agreement reached in November between President Xi Jinping and US counterpart Barack Obama. About $370b will be spent on atomic power. Plans to 3x nuclear capacity by 2020 to as much as 58 gigawatts.
Assuming a 25% conversion efficiency, a Radioisotope Power Source (RPS) would have 400K MJ / kg (electric) compared to 0.72 MJ / kg for Li-ion batteries. The goal is make a 5 watt “D cell” but with nuclear power that lasts decades
Bill Gates is funding Nathan Myhrvold’s Terrapower, a fast breeder reactor that burns a U238 duraflame log for 60 years, with 99% efficiency vs 1% for today’s U235 reactors. No fuel to reload or waste to ship around. Existing nuclear waste could be used as fuel.
“It is the first time a comprehensive IAEA international meeting on molten salt reactors has ever taken place. Given the interest of Member States, the IAEA could provide a platform for international cooperation and information exchange on the development of these advanced nuclear systems.” Molten salt reactors operate at higher temperatures, making them more efficient in generating electricity. In addition, their low operating pressure can reduce the risk of coolant loss, which could otherwise result in an accident. Molten salt reactors can run on various types of nuclear fuel and use different fuel cycles. This conserves fuel resources and reduces the volume, radiotoxicity and lifetime of high-level radioactive waste.
2016-11-28: Making nuclear energy radically less expensive
“The big thing is that the government is making national lab resources available to private companies in a way that it wasn’t before. If you are a nuclear startup, you can only go so far before you need to do testing, and you are not going to build a nuclear test facility, because that is hard and expensive. But now you could partner with a national lab to use their experimental resources. I’ve been talking about how to set up a pathway from universities for this kind of research.”
2016-12-01: Coal to nuclear can rapidly address 30% of CO2
The high temperature reactors can replace the coal burners at 100s supercritical coal plants in China. The lead of the pebble bed project indicates that China plans to replace coal burners with high temperature nuclear pebble bed reactors.
The amount of used nuclear fuel will continue to increase, reaching around 1M tons by 2050. The uranium and plutonium that could be extracted from that used fuel would be sufficient to provide fuel for at least 140 light water reactors of 1 GW capacity for 60 years. “It makes sense to consider how to turn today’s burden into a valuable resource.”
The overall cost of this first of a kind nuclear plant will be in the neighborhood of $5K/kw of capacity. That number is based on signed and mostly executed contracts, not early estimates. It is 2x the initially expected cost. 35% of the increased cost could be attributed to higher material and component costs that initially budgeted, 31% of the increase was due to increases in labor costs and the remainder due to the increased costs associated with the project delays.
Zhang Zuoyi described the techniques that will be applied to lower the costs; he expects them to soon approach the $2k / kw capacity range. If this can be achieved then the 210 MW reactor would be $525m. A 630 MW reactor would be $1.5b. It could be less if the 600 MW reactor only had to have the thermal unit and could use the turbine and other parts of an existing coal plant.
Terrestrial Energy is leading the way to getting regulatory approvals for its molten salt
fission reactor design. Terrestrial Energy aims to build the first walkaway safe molten salt modular reactor design in the late 2020s. IMSR generates 190 MW electric energy with a thermal-spectrum, graphite-moderated, molten-fluoride-salt reactor system. It uses standard-assay low-enriched uranium (less than 5% 235U) fuel.
Deep in the bedrock of Olkiluoto Island in southwest Finland a tomb is under construction. The tomb is intended to outlast not only the people who designed it, but also the species that designed it. It is intended to maintain its integrity without future maintenance for 100 ka, able to endure a future ice age. 100 ka ago 3 major river systems flowed across the Sahara. 100 ka ago anatomically modern humans were beginning their journey out of Africa. The oldest pyramid is around 4.6 ka old; the oldest surviving church building is fewer than 2 ka old.
This Finnish tomb has some of the most secure containment protocols ever devised: more secure than the crypts of the Pharaohs, more secure than any supermax prison. It is hoped that what is placed within this tomb will never leave it by means of any agency other than the geological.
The tomb is an experiment in post-human architecture, and its name is Onkalo, which in Finnish means “cave” or “hiding place.” What is to be hidden in Onkalo is high-level nuclear waste, perhaps the darkest matter humans have ever made.
The reams of data generated by 3D-printing parts can speed up the certification process and lower the cost of getting a nuclear reactor online.
2021-04-20: Nuclear power failed. We need to deeply understand these reasons, because there won’t be a energy transition without new nuclear.
To avoid global warming, the world needs to massively reduce CO2 emissions. But to end poverty, the world needs massive amounts of energy. In developing economies, every kWh of energy consumed is worth $5 of GDP.
How much energy do we need? Just to give everyone in the world the per-capita energy consumption of Europe (which is only half that of the US), we would need to more than triple world energy production, increasing our current 2.3 TW by over 5 additional TW:
If we account for population growth, and for the decarbonization of the entire economy (building heating, industrial processes, electric vehicles, synthetic fuels, etc.), we need more like 25 TW. The proximal cause of nuclear‘s flop is that it is expensive. In most places, it can’t compete with fossil fuels. Natural gas can provide electricity at 7–8 cents/kWh; coal at 5 c/kWh.Why is nuclear expensive? I’m a little fuzzy on the economic model, but the answer seems to be that it‘s in design and construction costs for the plants themselves. If you can build a nuclear plant for around $2.50/W, you can sell electricity cheaply, at 3.5–4 c/kWh. But costs in the US are around 2–3x that. (Or they were—costs are so high now that we don’t even build plants anymore.)
2022-09-14: Simple reactor designs that can be iterated quickly may be the future
Much of the future lies with KRUSTY-like kilowatt-scale systems. Nuclear has a power density problem that keeps it from powering our cars and planes. The shielding and heat engines are too heavy. The radiation and particles are harmful because they contain a lot of energy. The answer is to make solid-state technologies that convert heat and radiation into electricity. It is theoretically possible to turn gamma rays into electricity with something similar to a solar cell. Shielding gets lighter and generates electricity! It also brings new life to many isotopes that require too much shielding to be practical in radioisotope generators. In the meantime, kilowatt-scale systems can compete in smaller remote power applications and supplement solar microgrids. Further cost decreases could enable electricity customers to defect from the grid where solar is not feasible. Competing manufacturers promise a much more competitive industry than exists today, where incentives rarely encourage falling prices.
The endgame is a chunk of nuclear material that can regulate itself based on user demand, surrounded by energy-capturing devices that soak up every bit of emitted energy. Power density could exceed today’s liquid fuels and batteries while having extreme energy density. We’d finally get our flying cars! Reactors that look like KRUSTY are on the path to that endgame.
2023-03-25: Nuclear has some near-fatal problems that make it a non-starter on earth. Beyond the well-known overregulation, the biggest problem is that nuclear produces relatively low temperature heat that then has to be converted to electricity, which is very inefficient. A process would have to be found to turn radiation and heat directly into electricity, without the steam turbines. 2023-07-13: How we got the current regulatory regime
In a world where industry and activists fought to a standstill, Probabilistic Risk Assessment provided the only credible guiding light. Rasmussen and team first began to compile and model relevant data in the early 1970s. Over the decades the industry’s database grew, and the NRC developed an opinion on every valve, every pipe, the position of every flashing light in a plant. This angered the utilities, who could not move a button on a control panel without reams of test data and its associated paperwork. This angered activists when the refinement of models predicted safety margins could be relaxed.
But Probabilistic Risk Assessment has no emotions. Probabilistic Risk Assessment estimated, validated, learned. Probabilistic Risk Assessment would form the barrier protecting us from catastrophe.
i’m still reading a new kind of science. one concept that wolfram advocates is that of finite nature.
The basic idea is that of ‘Finite Nature’. There is some discussion of the exact meaning of this phrase; my preferred definition is, the proposition that a finite quantity of space/time, containing a finite amount of matter/energy, is capable (in principle) of being simulated EXACTLY using a finite amount of computing power on a Universal Turing Machine. The implications of the Finite Nature concept are pretty far-reaching. Among other things, any physical principle that is presently theorized to be based on continuous functions of any kind, must be supposed to actually be an approximation of an underlying computational process. This reverses the normal relationship, where digital processes (such as CA’s, or generally any quantized matrix calculations such as those used in computational dynamics) are seen as approximations of an underlying, continuous reality.
although wolfram has his detractors, his book is highly inspirational. he certainly has done much to publicize the field of digital philosophy.
Broken pipes and rusty fences. If that ain’t scary, few things are.
The main entrances to Los Alamos are only marginally better defended than TA-33’s land. The military-like guards keeping watch at these points certainly look fierce in camouflage paints and black bulletproof vests. But there’s little to back up the image. Their belts have gun holsters, but no guns to fill them. Around facilities like the biology lab, where anthrax and other biotoxins have been handled, no sentries stand guard at all. Nor is there any kind of fence to keep the curious and the malicious away — not even a piece of string.
The United States Geological Survey is now reporting the magnitude of the claimed North Korean nuclear test as 4.2. This seems to be curiously low. Now, estimating explosive yield from the body magnitude of a seismic event is a tricky business, and requires knowledge of details such as the depth of the detonation and the geological properties of the surroundings, but a magnitude around 4.2 is what you’d expect for a detonation of 1 kiloton. The “natural size” of a crude fission bomb is in excess of 10 kilotons, from which you’d expect a magnitude closer to 5. It is very unlikely that a low kiloton yield device would be used in an initial test.
2006-12-03: The Agony of Atomic Genius, biographical sketch of J. Robert Oppenheimer
2008-06-28: Man-made nuclear explosions in the 1940s and 1950s released isotopes into the environment that do not occur naturally, allowing the dating of works of art. 2010-09-21: The Atom Bomb on Film. Or you could go to the atomic testing museum in Vegas and see these and much more in person.
2010-11-25: Nuke Detector. Turn a supertanker into an antineutrino detector by kitting it out with the necessary photon detectors and filling it with 10^34 protons. Then station it off the coast of suspicious countries and submerge it. 2013-11-26: India nuclear assassinations and the Indian government is mum about it. Nuclear scientists have very high mortality in Iran too, but the government there is making a huge ruckus about it.
Indian nuclear scientists haven’t had an easy time of it over the past 10 years. Not only has the scientific community been plagued by “suicides,” unexplained deaths, and sabotage, but those incidents have gone mostly underreported in the country—diluting public interest and leaving the cases quickly cast off by police.
during the Cold War, the United States did deploy man-portable nuclear destruction. If Warsaw Pact forces ever bolted toward Western Europe, they could resort to nukes to delay the advance long enough for reinforcements to arrive. These “small” weapons, many of them more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, would have obliterated any battlefield and irradiated much of the surrounding area.
In 1957, a young man named Darrell Robertson enlisted in the US Army and participated in a secret training program in the middle of the Nevada desert. He and his fellow recruits were sworn to secrecy and, for decades, told no one of their experiences. In 1996, the US government declassified the project and Robertson was finally able to tell his story. In X-Ray Man, Robertson recalls training exercises in which the Department of Defense used him and other soldiers in nuclear tests more than 10 years after the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were already well known. Kerri Yost’s powerful short documentary is an account of how Cold War-era fears allowed for shocking treatment not just of supposed enemies, but also of those enlisted to fight against them. Though cancer has attacked his body, Robertson, supported by his wife, remains stoic and dignified, offering the quiet but forceful observation that ‘any person in the military becomes part of military science’.
2015-09-09: Nuclear wars for SETI. Nuclear explosions might be the first thing we see of other life at interstellar distances. Gamma rays are much easier to detect than radio waves, but would only last a few days at most. You’d have to be extremely lucky to catch that, but then we can spot GRB like that all the time. 2016-07-17: The H-Bombs in Turkey
Among the many questions still unanswered following Friday’s coup attempt in Turkey is one that has national-security implications for the United States and for the rest of the world: How secure are the American hydrogen bombs stored at a Turkish airbase?
2019-03-12: Trinity Test. The first detonation of a nuclear bomb
To avoid being destroyed and rendered useless—their silos provide no real protection against a direct Russian nuclear strike—they would be “launched on warning,” that is, as soon as the Pentagon got wind of an incoming nuclear attack. Because an error could have disastrous consequences, James Mattis testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee in 2015 that getting rid of America’s land-based nuclear missiles “would reduce the false alarm danger.” Whereas a bomber can be turned around even on approach to its target, a nuclear missile launched by mistake can’t be recalled.
Gregor J. Rothfuss 