interesting writing over at the feature about community currencies. makes me wonder what their influence on monetary policy will be. they are not as huge as frequent flyer miles yet,
most interesting question: “online games creation inflation (with monsters being money trees basically). how can you keep that inflationary pressure out if you trade game items with real cash?”
who could be better qualified to remove barriers to market efficiency than eliot spitzer as we enter the bobbitt market-state? As attorney general, of course.
Trust between people engaging in economic transactions affects the economic growth of their community. Reputation management systems, such as the Feedback Forum of eBay Inc., can increase the trust level of the participants. We show in this paper that experimental economics can be used in a controlled laboratory environment to measure trust and trust enhancement. Specifically, we present an experimental study that quantifies the increase in trust produced by 2 versions of a reputation management system. We also discuss some emerging issues in the design of reputation management systems.
Worldchanging on a Moore’s law of efficiency. I wonder how much this is due to improvements in processes and how much due to shifts in value generation from the physical to the virtual.
From 1845 to the present, the amount of energy required to produce the same amount of gross national product has steadily decreased at the rate of 1% / year. 1% / year yields a factor of 2.7 when compounded over 100 years.
the energy required to produce 1$ of GDP has decreased by ~1% per year since 1845.
2008-02-19: Really puzzling how people can make dumb investments in “real estate” when energy efficiency has an IRR that beats most sectors.
McKinsey Global has an energy productivity plan. An additional $170b per year invested in energy efficiency can provide 17% internal rate of return and cut projected energy demand growth by 50% by 2020. We could use existing technologies to pay for themselves. It would provide up to 50% of the global greenhouse gas avoidance to get to a long term 550 ppm level of GHG in the atmosphere. This would reduce the energy demand in 2020 by 135 quadrillion BTU or the equivalent of 64m barrels of oil per day. Instead of needing 613 quadrillion btu in 2020, there would be a need for 478 quadrillion btu. (In 2003, the world used 422 quadrillion btu).
America’s energy intensity was falling by a 0.4% until the oil shock of 1973. It is now falling by 2% a year.
2019-10-04: Andrew McAfee is offering to take a number of bets centered around predictions and implication from his new book More From Less.
In 2029, the US will consume less total energy than it did in 2019. In 2029, the US will produce less total CO2 emissions than it did in 2019, even after taking offshoring into account. Over the 5 years leading up to 2029, the US will use less paper in total than it did over the 5 years leading up to 2019.
in the past 5 years, the efficiency of the best new and retrofit buildings improved by 2-10x, with terrific economic returns, simply because we became smarter about how to choose and combine the technologies. That can be done in vehicles and industry too: for example, 2x or 3x car efficiency at comparable cost.
Over at thoughtstorms, they are discussing a new digital divide:
In the future we’ll see the world increasingly divided into 2 classes : the information-rich haves, and the information-poor have-nots. But ironically the exploited, impoverished, have-nots, will be those who are duped into paying increasingly more for decreasingly valuable proprietary information products. Meanwhile the cash rich, information rich will increasingly rely on superior, free information products : open source software such as Linux, public service programming from the BBC, the online communities of enthusiasts in every field, united through blogging, mailing lists and other discussion forums etc.
why is there no free entertainment when there is an abundance of free knowledge? i think knowledge accrues, while entertainment does not. entertainment atoms do not build upon each other in the same way that knowledge atoms do. maybe this is the return of a protestant work ethic? only those who produce will prevail
john robb has an interesting idea: export legal hassle. while his post has a tongue in cheek tone, there is a sound underlying idea: greasing the wheels of commerce by expanding the rule of law. under the assumption that laws are fair and are not merely devices to delay the demise of obsolete industries (hello DMCA, hello RIAA), this levels the playing field and reduces uncertainty. always good things for trade. works best in conjunction with pacification by trade the interesting question is of course whether this brings countries in closer compliance with the rules or is just another stage for an arms race.
US files a complaint against China for WTO violations. Now this is something that we can export: legal hassles. Unleash the lawyers! We should have 100s of WTO filings against China in the works. 1 way to make this happen: create a method by which private law firms can create a WTO case and share in the fines levied (or a lump sum payment based on a portion of the savings for US companies for successful efforts where no fines are extracted). There are probably lots of methods that can make legalism a top US export.
Finally they are doing something useful with our tax-money! Inmates of Poeschwies-jail in Zurich do not anymore carve boring candlesticks or assemble paper bags, no, they produce now things like this. freitag is dead, long live jailware!
Unlike other solid-to-liquid-fuel processes such as cornstarch into ethanol, this one will accept almost any carbon-based feedstock. If a 80 kg man fell into one end, he would come out the other end as 17 kg of oil, 3 kg of gas, and 3 kg of minerals, as well as 56 kg of sterilized water. While no one plans to put people into a thermal depolymerization machine, an intimate human creation could become a prime feedstock. “There is no reason why we can’t turn sewage, including human excrement, into a glorious oil”.
Just as we are hitting the hubbert peak, we get a technology that may make oil rigs obsolete:
Andreassen and others anticipate that a large chunk of the world’s agricultural, industrial, and municipal waste may someday go into thermal depolymerization machines scattered all over the globe. If the process works as well as its creators claim, not only would most toxic waste problems become history, so would imported oil. Just converting all the US agricultural waste into oil and gas would yield the energy equivalent of 4B barrels of oil annually. In 2001 the United States imported 4.2B barrels of oil. “This technology offers a beginning of a way away from this.”
With their main (only?) source of income in danger, what will the middle east kleptocracies do?
because
The only thing this process can’t handle is nuclear waste. If it contains carbon, we can do it.” and Thermal depolymerization has proved to be 85% energy efficient for complex feedstocks, and even higher for relatively dry raw materials, such as plastics
Held together by a slowly rotating system of currents northeast of Hawaii, the Eastern Garbage Patch is more than just a few floating plastic bottles washed out to sea; the Patch is a giant mass of trash-laden water 2x the size of Texas.
Declaring war on the “white pollution” choking its cities, farms and waterways, China is banning free plastic shopping bags and calling for a return to the cloth bags of old
2013-12-05: Depolymerization was hailed as the solution ~10 years ago: turning plastic back into more versatile compounds. I weirdly haven’t heard much about it since. Probably because no one cares about trash?
almost every facility like it in the country is running in the red. More than 2K municipalities are paying to dispose of their recyclables instead of the other way around.
Anything that requires constant vigilance (sorting) combined with subsidies isn’t going to work even medium-term. looks like recycling needs a big reboot. 2017-04-26: Plastic-eating worms. This sounds like one of those “obvious solutions”, like releasing rabbits in Australia to deal with a forgotten problem. Fear our future where the wax worm is up there with rust as a mortal enemy of civilization.
While other organisms can take weeks or months to break down even the smallest amount of plastic, the wax worm can get through more—in a far shorter period of time. The researchers let 100 wax worms chow down on a plastic grocery bag, and after just 12 hours they’d eaten 4% of the bag. That may not sound like much, but that’s a vast improvement over fungi, which weren’t able to break down a noticeable amount of polyethylene after 6 months.
Hydrothermal liquefaction could change the world’s polyolefin waste, a form of plastic, into useful products, such as clean fuels and other items. Once the plastic is converted into naphtha, it can be used as a feedstock for other chemicals or further separated into specialty solvents or other products. There is 1B tons of polyolefin waste in landfills.
2019-03-13: Plastic recycling never worked, and was a greenwashing effort by the industry, and dum-dums fell for it.
Even before China’s ban, only 9% of discarded plastic was being recycled, while 12% was burned. The rest was buried in landfills or simply dumped and left to wash into rivers and oceans. Without China to process plastic bottles, packaging, and food containers—not to mention industrial and other plastic waste—the already massive waste problem posed by our throwaway culture will be exacerbated, experts say. The planet’s load of nearly indestructible plastics—more than 8B tons have been produced worldwide over the past 60 years—continues to grow.
Companies like ExxonMobil, Shell, and Saudi Aramco are ramping up output of plastic to hedge against the possibility that a serious global response to climate change might reduce demand for their fuels. Petrochemicals now account for 14% of oil use, and are expected to drive 50% of oil demand growth between now and 2050. The World Economic Forum predicts plastic production will double in the next 20 years.
Every human on Earth is ingesting 2000 particles of plastic a week
2020-04-11: 90% breakdown of PET in under 10 hours. Process is still expensive and needs to scale further. 2020-07-08: Apples are the most contaminated fruit while carrots are the vegetables most affected. This is a much bigger problem than the performative efforts to clean up the great pacific garbage patch.
THROW A POLYESTER sweater in the washing machine and it’ll come out nice and clean, but also not quite its whole self. As it rinses, millions of synthetic fibers will shake loose and wash out with the waste water, which then flows to a treatment plant. Each year, a single facility might pump 21B of these microfibers out to sea, where they swirl in currents, settle in sediments, and end up as fish food, with untold ecological consequences.
The company plans to use what it learns from the demonstration facility to build its first industrial plant, which will house a reactor 20x larger than the demonstration reactor. That full-scale plant will be built near a plastic manufacturer somewhere in Europe or the US, and should be operational by 2025. Manufacturing PET from enzymatic recycling could reduce greenhouse gas emissions between 17% and 43% compared to making virgin PET.
Last month, a group of marine biologists noticed something fishy in a video by a nonprofit called The Ocean Cleanup. “This is likely a staged video. I call bullshit.” In the 25-second clip, a large net appears to dump 4000 kg of plastic waste, including crates, buckets, and fishing gear, onto the deck of a ship. The Ocean Cleanup, which has raised more than $100m on the promise to rid plastic from the seas, said the trash in the video was just pulled from the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. “It’s like mopping up the spill when the spigot is still on. We can’t clean up our way out of plastic pollution.”