Tag: economics

Fungi

Frog Lifeboat

They’re on the run from a vicious fungus that has already wiped out as many as 120 species of amphibians in Central America.

2007-01-02: Tomentella is a brain-eating fungus that creates zombie ants. it does not get much better than this.

2008-09-27: This remains one of my favorite TED talks of all time. mycelium++

2011-12-24: Psychedelic Santa Claus. The origins of this most holy of retail holidays. Praise GDP!

Although most people see Christmas as a Christian holiday, most of the symbols and icons we associate with Christmas celebrations are actually derived from the shamanistic traditions of the tribal peoples of pre-Christian Northern Europe. The sacred mushroom of these people was the red and white amanita muscaria mushroom, also known as “fly agaric.” These mushrooms are now commonly seen in books of fairy tales, and are usually associated with magic and fairies. This is because they contain potent hallucinogenic compounds, and were used by ancient peoples for insight and transcendental experiences. Most of the major elements of the modern Christmas celebration, such as Santa Claus, Christmas trees, magical reindeer and the giving of gifts, are originally based upon the traditions surrounding the harvest and consumption of these most sacred mushrooms.

2013-10-29: Peak Phosphorus: it’s a thing, and mushrooms are the solution (cf: Paul Stamets: 6 ways mushrooms can save the world)

2013-11-27: Fungi are vicious. Using poisons and flesh-dissolving enzymes (think: mycological “meat” tenderizers), they can defend their turf from incursions by other fungi.

Battles between mushrooms don’t make a sound, but they’re violent. Good fighters can kill the less-good ones and take over their territories. There are battles royal going on all the time.

Combat between fungal individuals is a bit like war between heaps of spaghetti. The main bodies of fungi are networks of long, thin strands called hyphae that insinuate themselves into anything they can eat: tree trunks, plant roots, dung and so on. Defending a food source or wresting a few more millimeters of turf away from a rival can prolong life. So fungi don’t let a lack of teeth, claws or eyes diminish their ferocity. Boddy studies toadstool-forming basidiomycetes, a group rife with combatants that poison opponents or release enzymes that dissolve their flesh.

2015-06-01: Fungus genders

The picture below may give you a hint about how the bird’s nest fungus got its name. But what it doesn’t show you is the rather fascinating love life that they have, and what this might tell us about where our own sexual preferences come from.

Bird’s nest fungi live in places like rotting trees, dung piles, mulched woodpiles, nursery pots, and various other places; they’ve done quite well in human habitats, and so several species are thriving. When it first sets up shop, a fungus will grow out long filaments all through the body of whatever it’s growing on, gradually digesting it with enzymes that transform wood (or whatever) into simple sugars. The fungus keeps growing until it touches a prospective mate: at this point, the 2 fungi will grow into each other, exchanging not just DNA but entire cell nuclei. The resulting “dikaryotic” (“2-nuclear”) fungus then grows the fruiting bodies that give it its name: little cups with spores in them that look like eggs in a bird’s nest.

These spores aren’t firmly attached: in fact, they’re designed to fly. When a raindrop hits a cup, it will propel the spores outwards (using the cup as a ramp) in all directions. The spores trail long, sticky filaments behind them, which get caught on branches; the (very lightweight) spores then wind around the branch grappling-hook style, leaving them firmly attached and ready to start their new life. The parent, meanwhile, will keep manufacturing more bird’s nests for as long as it has the food and water to keep going.

There’s just one catch: because the spores get distributed by rain, they don’t fly very far, and that means that children of the same parents will end up close by. This means that the fungus has to have some way to avoid inbreeding. (Inbreeding causes bad mutations to build up, in the sort of way that dubious X-Files episodes parodied, and that makes the fungus less able to survive. The non-silly version of this is called “inbreeding depression

The fungi achieve this by being very picky about their mates. Humans come in 2 genders, and these are our “mating compatibility groups.” These fungi, on the other hand, use what’s called a “tetrapolar mating system.” What it means is this: instead of their being one category of gender, each fungus has 2 kinds of gender, with the poetic names “MAT-A” and “MAT-B.” 2 fungi can only mate if both their MAT-A and MAT-B genders are different. And each of these doesn’t just come in 2 varieties – they can have 10s, or even 100s.

(For what comes next, if you want to know the details I highly recommend this paper)

Take Cyathus stercoreus, the “dung-loving bird’s nest” (don’t you love fungus names?), which is one of the most widespread of the bird’s nest fungi. It has 39 different possible MAT-A’s, and 24 MAT-B’s. This means that there are a total of 936 (39×24) different genders, and an arbitrary fungus will be able to mate with 874 (38×23) of them. The children of this mating will be one of 4 possible genders (getting their MAT-A’s and MAT-B’s independently from each parent), and each child would only be physically able to mate with one in 4 of its siblings – the ones which have both a different MAT-A and MAT-B. That means that there’s a 25% chance of successful mating with a relative, compared to a 94% chance with a random fungus it meets in the street. (Or rather, “in a pile of dung,” but that seems a little less romantic) (Unless you’re a fungus)

But to maintain 936 different genders, you need a lot of fungi, and in species that don’t have as many individuals around, we indeed find that the number of distinct genders goes down in time, as various MAT-A and -B variations are no longer present. Cyathus striatus, the fluted bird’s nest, only has 3 MAT-A’s and 11 MAT-B’s – giving strangers only a 61% chance (2×10/3×11) of being able to mate, with siblings still having that 25% chance. And in fact, C. striatus has been showing increased trouble breeding.

There’s one other important difference between fungi and people: these 100s of different genders (the technical term is “mating compatibility groups”) don’t have any differences in their large-scale physical shape. To tell the genders apart, you need genetic testing.

This may give us a hint as to how gender started out in the first place. At the simplest end, we have asexual reproduction: creatures that divide via mitosis and leave it at that. Next, we have creatures that can penetrate each other’s cell walls and exchange nuclei, like these fungi do; that gives them the advantages of cross-breeding. Compared to them, every asexual species is suffering from permanent inbreeding depression, as each creature only “mates” with itself. Then you see the development of things that quickly kill off any attempt to mate with excessively similar creatures, like this system of genders. You could easily imagine the next stage: the genetic variation between the genders starts to get used in building the physical structure of the creature. This opens up the possibility of different genders specializing in various ways, including in parts of the reproductive process – and the rest, as they say, is (pre)history.

But even we mammals haven’t given up on the old systems of genders! Studies in a wide range of species have shown that everything from butterflies to rats will actively avoid mating with anything that smells too much like them. Scents come from a variety of sources, but significantly, many of these scent components are inherited. What we have is a collection of genetic variants that make people who are too closely related to us not smell like prospective mates. This doesn’t physically prevent mating, but as you’ll have noticed above, even the fungi’s rather elaborate system only reduces the inbreeding rate to 25%; an imperfect system is a lot better than no system at all.

So the next time you smell your relatives, think about the mating habits of fungi, and how your pattern of scents may well be the evolutionary remnant of a system of 1000s of different genders that let our earliest ancestors know their kin.

Many thanks to John Baez for the original article (shared below) which sparked my curiosity with its talk of “mating compatibility groups.” Who would have known that fungi could do that? Well, apart from mycologists, I guess.

2014-02-06: MOMA PS 1 will have a mushroom tower this summer. beats a cloud.

opening in late june, 2014 the scheme integrates biological technologies alongside advanced computer-based engineering. using a pioneering method of bio-design, the structure is formed entirely of organic matter. through diverting the natural carbon cycle, the scheme requires no energy, and produces zero CO2 emissions.

2014-04-05: Mushroom packaging

did you know that there are better alternatives to asbestos, like mushrooms? me neither.

2014-12-16: The Mushroom Man. 6000 species in a garage.

Herbarium Rooseveltensis Amanitarum may contain more distinct species than any university or museum. I have well over 6000 collections of Amanita alone

2016-03-05: Fungi withstand Mars

After a year-and-a-half long voyage aboard the International Space Station, a group of fungi collected from Antarctica has proven its ability to withstand harsh, Mars-like conditions. 60% of the cells remained intact, providing new insight for the possibility of life on Mars.

2016-08-07: Fungal networks

The implications of the Wood Wide Web far exceed this basic exchange of goods between plant and fungi, however. The fungal network also allows plants to distribute resources—sugar, nitrogen, and phosphorus—between one another. A dying tree might divest itself of its resources to the benefit of the community, for example, or a young seedling in a heavily shaded understory might be supported with extra resources by its stronger neighbors. Even more remarkably, the network also allows plants to send one another warnings. A plant under attack from aphids can indicate to a nearby plant that it should raise its defensive response before the aphids reach it. It has been known for some time that plants communicate above ground in comparable ways, by means of airborne hormones. But such warnings are more precise in terms of source and recipient when sent by means of the myco-net.

2018-08-02: Amphetamine Parasite

Imagine emerging into the sun after 17 long years spent lying underground, only for your butt to fall off. That ignominious fate regularly befalls America’s cicadas. These bugs spend their youth underground, feeding on roots. After 13 or 17 years of this, they synchronously erupt from the soil in plagues of biblical proportions for a few weeks of song and sex. But on their way out, some of them encounter the spores of a fungus called Massospora.

2019-09-03: Bees Need Meat

Ask an entomologist what makes a bee a bee, and you’ll likely get some version of “bees are just wasps that went vegetarian.” New research shows that isn’t true. Bees are actually omnivores, and their meat is microbes. This finding may open a new window on why bees are in trouble: Anything that disrupts the microbial community in a bee’s food, whether it is high heat linked to climate change, fungicides or another stressor, could be causing developing bees to starve.” “For most people, the idea that microorganisms can qualify as meat is radical. In the past 4 years, Steffan has published a series of papers laying out evidence that microbes are an important part of a variety of food webs, including those that involve bees. Their findings confirm that fungi, bacteria and other microscopic players can fit anywhere in the food web, upending our vision of predator and prey, carnivore and herbivore—and what makes a bee a bee.”

2019-12-28: Dandruff

there is some indication that this fungus can migrate to the pancreas, where it is implicated in the pathogenesis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, the most common kind of pancreatic cancer (95%), as deadly as an 88 millimeter shell to the head.

2020-01-04: Freedom From Fungus

Why Don’t Humans Have Chestnut-Style Blights and White Nose-Style Syndromes? fungi are responsible for 72% of the local extinctions of animals and 64% among plants. White nose syndrome in bats and Dutch elm disease are 2 high-profile examples of extremely deadly fungal diseases gaining wider ranges through global trade. While each fungus itself is unique, many fungal pathogens share several special abilities that make them especially lethal. Fighting off fungus may be 1 reason why our body temperature is fastened at 37° C.

2020-04-02: Fungus Meat. This is of course not new. Quorn has been around since the 80s.

Fast-growing meshworks of mycelial filaments can replicate meat’s texture, and it’ll eat pretty much any carbon source, including waste from various industrial processes. Decades ago, British-based Quorn was the beginning of this idea, but this year the number of startups planning to put fungus-based alternative proteins in stores and on plates is mushrooming.

2020-08-10: Fungi emit 8x as much CO2 as humanity.

fungal decomposition is one of the largest sources of CO2 emissions, emitting 85 gigatons every year. In 2018, the combustion of fossil fuels by humans emitted 10 gigatons.

2020-08-11: Fungus economics

the fungus coordinated its trading behavior across the network. Kiers identified a strategy of “buy low, sell high.” The fungus actively transported phosphorus — using its dynamic microtubule “motors” — from areas of abundance, where it fetched a low price when exchanged with a plant root, to areas of scarcity, where it was in higher demand and fetched a higher price. By doing so, the fungus was able to transfer a greater proportion of its phosphorus to the plant at the more favorable exchange rate, thus receiving larger quantities of CO2 in return.

2020-09-27: Saving the Bees with fungi. Adding a 1% extract of amadou and reishi to bees’ sugar water reduced deformed wing virus 80x.
2021-05-18: Fungus problemsolvers

Mycelium not only grows into economical networks, it also reshapes itself in response to its environment. From a block of colonised wood, teeming hyphae initially grow out in all directions in search of more food. But when 1 part of the network finds something new to consume – another block of wood, for instance – the rest of the mycelium stops searching, withdraws from fruitless areas and begins thickening the links to the new food source. What’s more, if the hyphae that connect the original block of wood to the newly discovered one are stripped away, and the 2 blocks are placed in a new container to prevent the re-establishment of old pathways, the regrowing mycelium will nevertheless start out of the original block in the direction of the other one: it appears to ‘possess a directional memory, although the basis of this memory is unknown’.

With a decentralized body that grows independently at every extremity, how does a fungus know when to change itself? When a hyphal tip discovers a tasty block of wood, how is this information conveyed to the rest of the network-body? Through chemical transport, perhaps? Fungi are known to produce and respond to chemicals that can act as cues, and mycelial networks transport water and nutrients rapidly through their hyphae in microtubules, which function hydraulically and are highly pressure-sensitive. They can also direct the flow towards particular areas: when it is time to produce a mushroom, for instance, the mycelium propels water into the growing fruit, sometimes under great pressure. A fruiting stinkhorn mushroom can crack through asphalt, exerting a force sufficient to lift 130 kg.

2021-05-22: Antifungal vaccines

Surveillance that identifies serious fungal infections is patchy, and so any number is probably an undercount. But 1 widely shared estimate proposes that there are possibly 300M people infected with fungal diseases worldwide and 1.6M deaths every year—more than malaria, as many as tuberculosis. Just in the US, the CDC estimates that more than 75K people are hospitalized annually for a fungal infection, and another 8.9M people seek an outpatient visit, costing about $7.2B a year. For physicians and epidemiologists, this is surprising and unnerving. Long-standing medical doctrine holds that we are protected from fungi not just by layered immune defenses but because we are mammals, with core temperatures higher than fungi prefer. The cooler outer surfaces of our bodies are at risk of minor assaults—think of athlete’s foot, yeast infections, ringworm—but in people with healthy immune systems, invasive infections have been rare. The best counter to the ravages of fungi is not treatment but prevention: not drugs but vaccines. Right now no vaccine exists for any fungal disease. But the difficulty of treating patients long term with toxic drugs, combined with staggering case numbers, makes finding 1 urgent. And for the first time, 1 might be in sight if not in reach.


2022-08-19: A free textbook on fungi

fungi lack the functionally important terminal sialylation of the glycans that occurs in mammalian cells. So, without engineering, filamentous fungi, despite their other advantages, are not the most suitable microbial hosts for production of recombinant human glycoproteins for therapeutic use. Nevertheless, strategies to prevent proteolysis have already met with some success and new scientific information being generated through genomics and proteomics research will extend the biomanufacturing capabilities of recombinant filamentous fungi, enabling them to express genes encoding multiple proteins, making filamentous fungi even better candidates to produce proteins and protein complexes for therapeutic use

2022-11-14: How Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis spread widely in amphibians

Since the 1970s, the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has spread globally amongst amphibian populations, wiping out entire species and decimating others. While the fungus maintained a consistent set of housekeeping genes, Bd tailored the expression of other genes to each host, allowing it to pursue multiple infection strategies. For example, in more-vulnerable species, genes essential for attaching to and invading leukocytes, cells that defend a host from pathogens, were upregulated. In more-resistant species, genes promoting quicker reproduction, perhaps to evade or overwhelm a host’s defenses, were elevated.

Medicine is Primitive

The practice of modern medicine is surprisingly primitive. My doctor only recently started to provide printed prescriptions instead of the usual scrawl. Incorrectly filled prescriptions can be serious and computer printed prescriptions are an obvious response yet even today only 25% of physicians use some form of electronic health records and only 10% really use electronic records to follow a patient’s entire history. My credit card company knows far more about my shopping history than my physician knows about my medical history.

the last area of artisanal production needs standardization, measurement

Prediction Markets

Internet gambling is good for consumers. Too bad America wants to ban it

The spread of the internet has made the online gambler king. The emergence of large online gambling companies has slashed gaming operators’ margins and driven up payout ratios for gamblers. And the punters have embraced it in their millions, especially in America, where illegal gambling has long flourished. Last year 12m Americans placed about $6b in online bets, 50% the world’s total. You might have hoped politicians would greet such a demonstration of popularity with moderation—welcoming online gambling’s benefits and curbing its inevitable excesses. Instead they have put all their chips on red. Last weekend Congress passed a bill that will stop banks making payments to online gambling sites, adding to an already formidable legislative arsenal that outlaws most online gaming.

congress just killed a golden goose.
2006-12-03: uh crap i would have LOVED to attend this one. prediction markets is one of my permathreads.
2007-01-30: performance matters for betting markets too. to get even faster you’d have to factor out the humans clicking the buttons, but i guess that would require betting to grow up from being entertainment.
2007-04-24:

The key drivers in both filtering and consensus making in such systems is often positive feedback. For Digg, good stories get “dug” which makes them more likely to be seen and dug further. Poor stories do not get dug, rank lower, are less likely to be dug and slowly disappear. In ant trails, pheromone deposition stimulates further deposition if the food source really is good. Perhaps software developers should be given a cache of tokens. They can give the manager of a project 2 tokens each day if they think the project worth continuing. The manager can hire a programmer for the day [for 1 token] if he has enough tokens. Thus, crappy projects soon get filtered out by consensus. [The 2 vs 1 token prevents too much fluidity in the project and damps some random fluctuations].

2007-12-06:

In a new book, “Imperfect Knowledge Economics”, Mr Frydman sets out an alternative approach to prediction, in which the forecaster recognizes that his model will inevitably be less than perfect. Their work has received glowing praise from Nobel-prize-winning economists such as Kenneth Arrow and Edmund Phelps, who wrote the introduction to the book—though it is unlikely to have gone down so well with Robert Lucas, who won the Nobel for his work on rational expectations.

2008-01-07:

Despite the markets’ strong forecasting abilities, there is a slight optimistic bias driven mainly by new employees. On average, outcomes that were good for Google were overpriced by 20%. This bias was strongest on days after appreciations in Google stock and, ironically, for outcomes under our own control! We also find biases against extreme outcomes and short selling. Given a range of 5 outcomes, the middle ones were typically overpriced and unprofitable by comparison with the outliers.

hmm, i must have slept through that one.
2021-04-21:

are prediction markets doomed to repeat errors as grave as giving Trump a 15% chance of overturning the election in early December, and a 12% chance of overturning it even after the Supreme Court including 3 judges whom he appointed telling him to screw off? My answer is, surprisingly, an emphatic yes, and I see a few reasons for optimism.

2022-02-09:

In 2010, Philip Tetlock (one of the signatories on the pro-prediction market letter) did some pretty basic forecasting work, not even prediction market level, and proved that he could significantly outperform top analysts at the CIA with access to classified information. The government refused to hire him or use any of his methods, and continued shutting down new prediction markets as they arose. Polymarket is probably the biggest prediction market currently available. US law considers unlicensed prediction markets to be somewhere between illegal gambling and illegal futures trading, ie definitely illegal. The US is becoming the North Korea of forecasting. Every other civilized country allows prediction markets. In a perfect world, they could ignore our constant own goals and move on without us. But because America has a disproportionate share of money, users, coders, and entrepreneurs, a US-less prediction market ecosystem won’t be living up to its potential. That means decreased ability to gather and process information and worse decision-making worldwide.

Largest economic entities

Rank Country/Corporation GDP/Revenue
$ billions
1 United States 11668
2 Japan 4623
3 Germany 2714
4 United Kingdom 2141
5 France 2003
6 Italy 1672
7 China 1649
8 Spain 991
9 Canada 980
10 India 692
11 Korea, Rep. 680
12 Mexico 676
13 Australia 631
14 Brazil 605
15 Russian Federation 582
16 Netherlands 577
17 Switzerland 359
18 Belgium 350
19 Sweden 346
20 Turkey 302
21 Austria 290
22 Wal-Mart Stores 288
23 BP 285
24 Exxon Mobil 271
25 Royal Dutch/Shell Group 269
26 Indonesia 258
27 Saudi Arabia 251

these things are suspect, despite their wow / cyberpunk factor

Second life euphemism

Second life is an euphemism for a busy retirement

Though it is widely understood that broadband technologies that allow rapid and ‘always on’ connections to the Internet will provide significant benefits to the US economy, this report is the first to estimate the economic benefits to the nation due to cost savings and output expansion resulting from the use of broadband technologies for an important specific sub-group of the US population: the 70m Americans who are over 65 or under that age but have disabilities. 3 types of benefits from broadband deployment and use are addressed: lower medical costs; lower costs of institutionalized living; and additional output generated by more seniors and individuals with disabilities in the labor force. Considered together, these 3 benefits are estimated to accumulate to at least $927B in cost savings and output gains in 2005 $ (with future benefits discounted for the ‘time value of money’) over the 25 year period, 2005 to 2030. This amount is equivalent to 50% of what the United States currently spends annually for medical care for all its citizens ($1.8 trillion). As large as these benefits may appear, they are line with previous estimates for the benefits of broadband for the population as a whole. Policies designed to accelerate the use of broadband for these populations, however, could significantly add to the benefits, by cumulative amounts ranging from $532B to $847B (depending on the wages earned by the additional working seniors). The policy benefits are as substantial as what the federal government is likely to spend on homeland security over the next 25 years. Total cumulative benefits, under the right set of policies, could exceed what the United States currently spends annually for health care for all its citizens. Clearly, with so much at stake, policymakers have strong reasons to consider measures to accelerate the deployment and use of broadband technologies for America’s seniors and individuals with disabilities.

when you retire, your second life will be online. i had heard many a commenter mention their time constraints when faced with World of Warcraft or second life. is it unreasonable to expect a bimodal distribution on these platforms in the future? the young and the old certainly have the time. if these systems are able to attract older segments of the population, things will get interesting. actually, they already do.

if we leverage these enormous resources, ideally by making things like the mechanical turk or wikipedia fun for a large part of them, we’ll easily be able handle pensions and health care for a rapidly aging population, and still have funds left over for many more charity and nonprofit projects than today.

i always believed that a major reason for the bursting of the first bubble was that the internet experience of the average person is riddled with viruses, spyware and spam. it’s hard to overestimate how much this destroyed the trust and interest in all things internet. so maybe part of the appeal of these online worlds is there relative lack of annoyances (surely not for long..). what is needed, therefore, is a massive, probably grassroots, effort, to clean up the world’s computers and re-establish a safe browsing experience, and get these people back online. the rest will follow.

New Orleans consequences

The displacement of population is the crisis that New Orleans faces. It is also a national crisis, because the largest port in the United States cannot function without a city around it. The physical and business processes of a port cannot occur in a ghost town, and right now, that is what New Orleans is. It is not about the facilities, and it is not about the oil. It is about the loss of a city’s population and the paralysis of the largest port in the United States.

george friedman has the best analysis by far. as usual, the MSM offer no insight beyond gory pictures.