Tag: covid

Economy freezer

Denmark is putting the economy into the freezer for 3 months. the government is paying companies for employees who are going home and not working. These workers are being paid a wage to do nothing. The government is saying: Lots of people are suddenly in danger of being fired. But if we have firing rounds, it will be very difficult to adapt later.

Titrating Quarantine

Last week I predicted that this might look like titrating quarantine levels – locking everything down, then trying to unlock it just enough to use available medical capacity, then locking things down more again if it looked like the number of cases was starting to get out of hand. This would eventually develop herd immunity without overwhelming the medical system. A paper argued for alternating periods of higher and lower quarantine levels based on how the medical system was doing:

A seesaw pattern of quarantine might work

Taiwan & COVID-19

Most important was Taiwan’s experience battling the SARS outbreak in 2003, followed by the swine flu in 2009. In the middle of the worst of the outbreak in 2003, the current vice president, Chen Chien-jen, was appointed minister of health and won widespread praise for taking quick and decisive action. The threat of SARS put Taiwan on high alert for future outbreaks, while the past record of success at meeting such challenges seems to have encouraged the public to accept socially intrusive technological interventions. The government’s special powers to integrate data and track people were only allowed during a crisis.

US COVID-19 failures

The failures are fractal, hence I’ll collect different takes from different perspectives.

The United States, long accustomed to thinking of itself as the best, most efficient, and most technologically advanced society in the world, is about to be proved an unclothed emperor.

the pandemic outed 100Ms as dumb fucks, not really news, but still depressing.

the United States underperformed across the board, and its errors compounded. The dearth of tests allowed unconfirmed cases to create still more cases, which flooded the hospitals, which ran out of masks, which are necessary to limit the virus’s spread. Twitter amplified Trump’s misleading messages, which raised fear and anxiety among people, which led them to spend more time scouring for information on Twitter. Even seasoned health experts underestimated these compounded risks.

Also, this analysis is far too kind on the establishment: so many institutional failures and inertia at the CDC and FDA that have nothing to do with this narrative.
The following piece argued that all the pandemic planning was a waste of time.

The failure of the United States government to respond to the coronavirus was not a failure of foresight. It was a failure to create a coherent strategy and to provide clear lines of authority to implement it. To prepare for the next pandemic, we need to end our current proliferation of planning mandates and overlapping agency authorities (such as that of the Assistant Secretary for Response and Preparedness), strengthen the pandemic response ability of one agency (preferably the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), and reform our current National Emergency Act to allow clear delegation of emergency power. Only by examining our current failures and rectifying them, most importantly, by combining authority, responsibility, and accountability in the right hands, can we make sure that our next Pandemic Preparedness Act is not an embarrassment to its name.

We also lost a lot of process knowledge to be able to pivot quickly:

US factories are as productive as ever but they’ve lost the process knowledge needed to retool quickly in a crisis.

COVID-19 crisis reveals paralytic nature of America’s regulatory order:

We need an immediate intervention to break America free from its bureaucratic addiction.

States can’t even redirect 0.3% of their budget:

States and local public health officials have warned for months that they would need more than $8B in additional funding to stand up the infrastructure needed to administer vaccines. Total state and local spending is about $3.7 trillion, $2.3 trillion from the states alone. $8B is how much of that? Our states cannot come up with 0.3% of their budgets to meet the greatest emergency in our lifetimes?

Meanwhile, alcohol producer can’t make sanitizer:

Worse yet, the FDA reversed course, announcing additional restrictions that effectively prevent any sales, even though ethanol companies had already produced and shipped millions of liters of high-grade alcohol for hand sanitizer.

here’s how things went with contact tracing:

But the effort was frustrated as the CDC’s decades-old notification system delivered information collected at the airports that was riddled with duplicative records, bad phone numbers and incomplete addresses. For weeks, officials tried to track passengers using lists sent by the CDC, scouring information about each flight in separate spreadsheets. “It was insane”

Valve lawsuit

Volunteers 3D-Print unobtainable valve and get sued

And if you’re wondering why the original manufacturer would risk what is bound to be awful publicity for its actions, over something that only costs 1 euro to make, a detail in the Business Insider Italia article provides an explanation: the official list price for a single valve is $11K.