Tag: climate

Revenge Of The Negabarrels

So in an oil market that sputters at $60 a barrel, faints at $40, and vanishes at $20, what do negabarrels cost to produce? In 2004, Winning the Oil Endgame detailed how negabarrels costing $17 in today’s $ could save half of US oil. In 2011, our Reinventing Fire synthesis updated how saving all US oil by 2050, with far greater mobility, could cost $20 per barrel saved in US transport or $14 just in autos. Today’s efficient autos can save a barrel for less than $7. That will fall below 0 in a few more years as superior electric cars match or beat gasoline cars on sticker price alone.

Ozone Progress

the Montreal protocol has paused the southward movement of the jet stream since the turn of the century and may even be starting to reverse it as the ozone hole begins to close. Last September, satellite images revealed the ozone hole annual peak had shrunk to 16.4m sq km, the smallest extent since 1982.

the ozone hole might close by 2070. Here’s how that happened.

The success of the Vienna Convention lay in its increasing ambition over time. Regulations became tighter as more evidence emerged of the depletion of the ozone layer and the gases that were causing it. The deadline to phase out the production of ozone-depleting gases continued to be brought forward. More countries joined. By the turn of the millennium, 174 parties had signed on. In 2009, it became the first of any convention to achieve universal ratification. The success of this international effort was truly stunning. Before the first protocol came into action in 1989, the use of ozone depleting substances continued to increase. But the phaseout that followed was rapid. Within 1 year, consumption fell 25% below its 1986 levels. Within 10 years the levels had fallen by almost 80% (far beyond the initial target of the Montreal Protocol of a 50% reduction). As of today, their use has fallen by 99.7% compared to 1986.

this is probably the most successful collective action ever. a good amount of luck and timing seemed to have been involved, unclear how much mechanism design mattered.

Destroy agriculture

After 12 ka of feeding humankind, all farming except fruit and veg production is likely to be replaced by ferming, brewing microbes through precision fermentation. Dairy farming in the United States will be “all but bankrupt by 2030”. The American beef industry’s revenues will fall by 90% by 2035.

2022-06-02:

Formo is trying to do the same for cheese. They use genetically modified microorganisms to produce milk protein rather than alcohol. They then “brew” them in a bath of nutrients and plant-based feed, and after it has finished, they strain out the milk proteins.

By combining these proteins with water, plant-based fats and carbs, and a pinch of salt, they have created a completely lab-grown milk. This can be processed just like cow’s milk to make all sorts of cheeses. Formo says its process also uses orders of magnitude less land and produces far fewer CO2 emissions than dairy farming. What’s more, their cheese tastes like normal cheese and has near identical nutritional value.