Tag: books

Medieval Manuscripts

The honors and the texts de Hamel has access to are impressive, but not as impressive as his enthusiasm. Just look at how excited – manically happy – he is to talk about the subject of medieval manuscripts, in this video. It’s the enthusiasm of a man in love with his life’s work. It’s a wonderful thing to see

Inadequate Equilibria

Inadequate Equilibria: Where and How Civilizations Get Stuck is a little gem of a book: wise, funny, and best of all useful (and just made available for free on the web). Eliezer Yudkowsky and I haven’t always agreed about everything, but on the subject of bureaucracies and how they fail, his insights are gold. This book is one of the finest things he’s written. It helped me reflect on my own choices in life, and it will help you reflect on yours.

The book is a 120-page meditation on a question that’s obsessed me as much as it’s obsessed Yudkowsky. Namely: when, if ever, is it rationally justifiable to act as if you know better than our civilization’s “leading experts”? And if you go that route, then how do you answer the voices—not least, the voices in your own head—that call you arrogant, hubristic, even a potential crackpot?

The Second World Wars

The subtitle is How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won, and the author is Victor Davis Hanson. I loved this book, even though before I started I felt I didn’t want to read yet another tract on WWII. Most of the focus is on the logistics and management side:

By 1944, the US Navy was larger than the combined fleets of all the other major powers.

At the start of the War, the United States accounted for 60% of world oil output.

The US soldier was treated for psychiatric disorders at a rate 10x that of German troops. The average hospital stay for an American soldier was 117 days and 36% were not returned to the front. Supplies for a typical American soldier exceeded 36 kg per day.

The German army killed ~1.5 GIs for every German soldier lost.

The highest American fatality rate was in the Pacific, at 4%, still a remarkably low rate for the war as a whole. America did so well because of high gdp and remarkably efficient supply lines and equipment and air and naval support.

Restaurant Bookshelves

Her assignment: Gather 4500 books for a new hotel. The straight-forward assignment of gathering old science and math books took on a life of its own, turning into a massive project and tallying up 12k books. The Albert has shelves 12m high in the air stuffed with old algebra texts more visually stunning than the glossy collection of copper pots hanging just below.

The Wizard and the Prophet

In 40 years, Earth’s population will reach 10B. Can our world support that? What kind of world will it be? Those answering these questions generally fall into 2 deeply divided groups–Wizards and Prophets, as Charles Mann calls them in this balanced, authoritative, nonpolemical new book. The Prophets follow William Vogt, a founding environmentalist who believed that in using more than our planet has to give, our prosperity will lead us to ruin. Cut back! was his mantra. Otherwise everyone will lose! The Wizards are the heirs of Norman Borlaug, whose research, in effect, wrangled the world in service to our species to produce modern high-yield crops that then saved millions from starvation. Innovate! was Borlaug’s cry. Only in that way can everyone win! Mann delves into these diverging viewpoints to assess the 4 great challenges humanity faces–food, water, energy, climate change–grounding each in historical context and weighing the options for the future. With our civilization on the line, the author’s insightful analysis is an essential addition to the urgent conversation about how our children will fare on an increasingly crowded Earth.

Elephant in the Brain

One of the most frustrating things about writing physical books is the long time delays. It has been 17 months since I mentioned my upcoming book here, and now, 8.5 months after we submitted the full book for review, & over 4 months after 7 out of 7 referees said “great book, as it is”, I can finally announce that The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life, coauthored with Kevin Simler, will officially be published January 1, 2018. Sigh. A related sad fact is that the usual book publicity equilibrium adds to intellectual inequality. Since most readers want to read books about which they’ve heard much publicity lately from multiple sources, publishers try to concentrate publicity into a narrow time period around the official publication date. Which makes sense. But to create that burst of publicity, one must circulate the book well in advance privately among “thought leaders”, who might blurb or review it, invite the authors to talk on it, or recommend it to others who might do these things. So people who plausibly fit these descriptions get to read such books long before others. This lets early readers seem to be wise judges of future popular talk directions. Not because they actually have better judgement, but because they get inside info.

2018-03-01: Policy would benefit

policy analysts and social scientists who claim that they understand the social world well enough to make recommendations for changes—they should understand the elephant in the brain. They should have a better idea of hidden motives because they could think about which institutions that we might choose differently to have better outcomes.

timeless fictional London

The number of geographical references kept increasing, but they remain essentially localized in the City and in the West End. The rest of London—where most of the growth was actually taking place—never really mattered. In the course of the 19th century, real London radically changed—and fictional London hardly at all.

Settlement of the Americas

24 ka Americans?

About 24 ka ago, when much of North America was buried under the ice of the Last Glacial Maximum, a few hunters took shelter in a small cave above the Bluefish River in what is now northwestern Yukon. The hunters had killed a Yukon horse and were butchering it using super-sharp stone shards called microblades. As they sliced out the horse’s meaty tongue, the microblades left distinctive cuts in its jaw bone. Millennia later, archaeologist and doctoral candidate Lauriane Bourgeon spotted those marks through her microscope at the University of Montreal and added the fragment of ancient jaw bone to her small selection of samples for radiocarbon dating.

2017-04-26: 130 ka Americans? Those are fighting words, 6x-10x earlier than generally believed. Needs a LOT more evidence.

An unidentified Homo species used stone tools to crack apart mastodon bones, teeth and tusks approximately 130 ka ago at a site near what’s now San Diego.

2021-11-13: There’s plenty of evidence that North America was settled early, but not successfully:

The problem with the idea of an early, pre-Amerindian settlement of the Americas is that ( by hypothesis, and some evidence ) it succeeded, but ( from known evidence) it just barely succeeded, at best. Think like an epidemiologist – once humans managed to past the ice, they must have had a growth factor greater than 1.0 per generation – but it seems that it can’t have been a lot larger than that, because if they had averaged, say, 3 surviving kids per generation ( r = 1.5) , their population would have exploded, filling up all the habitable territories south of the glaciers in less than 2 ka. Maybe they didn’t have atlatls. The Amerindians certainly did. Maybe they arrived as fishermen and didn’t have many hunting skills. Those could have been developed, but not instantaneously. An analogy: early Amerindians visited some West Coast islands and must have had boats. But after they crossed the continent and reached the Gulf of Mexico, they had lost that technology and took several 1000 years to re-develop it and settle the Caribbean. Along this line, coastal fishing settlements back near the Glacial Maximum would all be under water today. Maybe they fought among themselves to an unusual degree. I don’t really believe in this, am just throwing out notions. Maybe their technology and skills set only worked in a limited set of situations, so that they could only successfully colonize certain niches. Neanderthals, for example, don’t seem to have flourished in plains, but instead in hilly country. On the other hand, we don’t tend to think of modern human having such limitations. One can imagine some kind of infectious disease that made large areas uninhabitable. With the low human population density, most likely a zoonosis, perhaps carried by some component of the megafauna – which would also explain why it disappeared.

2022-02-08: A more detailed look at the 24 ka hypothesis

I present this history of the last 36 ka of migration from the perspective of a scientist who places genetic evidence in the forefront of the investigation and then tests the models it produces with archaeological, linguistic, and environmental evidence. Around 36 ka BP, a small group of people living in East Asia began to break off from the larger ancestral populations in the region. 25 ka BP, the smaller group in East Asia itself split into 2. 1 gave rise to a group referred to by geneticists as the ancient Paleo-Siberians, who stayed in Northeast Asia. The other became ancestral to Indigenous peoples in the Americas.

24 ka BP, both groups independently began interacting with an entirely different group of people: the ancient Northern Siberians. Some archaeologists and geneticists argue that this meeting of the 2 grandparent populations of Native Americans—the group in East Asia and the ancient community in Northern Siberia—occurred because people moved north, not south, in response to the last glacial maximum (LGM), a period in which much of northern North America was covered by massive glaciers. Thus, many geneticists look north, to Beringia, for the location of the refugia that may have allowed the ancestors of Native Americans to survive the ice age.



2022-08-14: 37 ka evidence

About 37ka BP, a mother mammoth and her calf met their end at the hands of human beings.

Bones from the butchering site record how humans shaped pieces of their long bones into disposable blades to break down their carcasses, and rendered their fat over a fire. But a key detail sets this site apart from others from this era. It’s in New Mexico – a place where most archaeological evidence does not place humans until 10s of 1000s of years later. Based on genetic evidence from Indigenous populations in South and Central America and artifacts from other archaeological sites, some scientists have proposed that North America had at least 2 founding populations: the Clovis and a pre-Clovis society with a different genetic lineage.

Shores of Titan

As humanity expands outward, the frontier is Titan, Saturn’s largest moon, and the only moon in the solar system to have a substantial atmosphere. Titan around 2260 is much like present-day Antarctica: home to a variety of research stations operated by scientific agencies of various powers in the inner system. Titan is much more interesting than Antarctica, however. Apart from the Earth, it is the only solar system body to have natural liquids on its surface, with a complex cycle of evaporation, rain, erosion, rivers, lakes, and seas. The largest sea, Kraken Mare, located near the north pole, is larger than Earth’s Caspian Sea. Titan’s atmosphere is half again as dense as that of Earth, and with only 14% of Earth’s gravity, it is possible for people to fly under their own muscle power.