Tag: analysis

Dine-and-Dash Dater

Cass thought a ‘dine and dash’ was a fitting crime for a food-lover’s city like Pasadena. It is the birthplace of chef Julia Child, home to 500 restaurants, and one of America’s few Le Cordon Bleu culinary schools. Pasadena is known as the “City of Roses,” and it is Cass who cleans up its quirkier criminal cases. “They’re what we call the ‘X-Files’”. Recently, he captured the ‘Glass Man Burglar,’ a thief who skillfully removed window panes, and the ‘Guitar Bandit’ who delighted newspapermen by pulling off a “string” of thefts. When the detective typed “dine and dash” into Google, to brush up on the law, he was surprised to find 100s of news reports about 1 local man named Paul Gonzales. “He had, like, fans, and they were like, ‘hey, he’s not doing anything wrong. Some websites called Gonzales “scummy” and “Douchebag of the Week.” “This guy was not on any police department’s radar, yet he was one of the most wanted men in America.”

Shopify

This is how Shopify can both in the long run be the biggest competitor to Amazon even as it is a company that Amazon can’t compete with: Amazon is pursuing customers and bringing suppliers and merchants onto its platform on its own terms; Shopify is giving merchants an opportunity to differentiate themselves while bearing no risk if they fail.

Crypto is here to stay?

No matter what you think of this idea, it likely would boost the demand for Bitcoin and other crypto assets, as cryptocurrencies are potentially a way to store assets out of reach of many tax authorities. And the US is hardly the only nation that may be looking to a wealth tax in the future to balance the books. In essence, the new and higher price of Bitcoin is telling us that fiscal solvency will be hard to come by, and the wealthy will not give up their assets without a fight.

Scooters

At least at eye level, the lax regulations France does have – the minimum age is 8, cities may choose to permit or prohibit riding on the sidewalk, riding on all streets with speed limit up to 50 km/h is required – appear sufficient. The American, British, and Italian approaches are too draconian and only serve to discourage this mode of transportation.

Libra

What if the market for the underlying currencies and assets is (for a while?) more liquid than the market for Libras? Say the basket values adjust before Libra values do. What kind of arbitrage opportunities does that create? If we know Libras are due to depreciate, is there a higher nominal rate of interest on them, as with traditional currencies in an international multi-currency setting? What are the equivalents of covered and uncovered interest parity in this setting? Does a kind of “program trading” arise to perform the arbitrage? Can perfect redemption be offered credibly while the prices are still out of whack?

plus there are smart contracts

Another important aspect of the Libra Blockchain is Move, its new programming language. This programming language will allow users to define their own smart contracts in the future. Smart contracts are agreements written in code whose clauses are automatically enforced when a set of predetermined criteria is met.

and analysis by Matt Levine:

there are probably some things to say about regulation? Is this thing a payments processor? A money-market fund? A bank? I dunno, maybe, a little bit. 7 I cannot get too worked up about the regulatory framework applicable to it. For now I would prefer to be swept up by Facebook’s grand vision for it. That vision seems to involve competing with or even displacing national currencies, and if you’re going that far why not displace national regulatory regimes too? If we meet back here in 20 years and Libra has become the currency of the internet, we’re not going to be talking about whether Libra complies with banking regulation, we’re going to be talking about how the Libra Association regulates and stress-tests the Libra banks that it licenses

and a possible long game:

And this is when this bet would pay off for Facebook (and the second point I missed in my earlier analysis): the implication that digital currencies will do for money what the Internet did for information is that the very long-term trend will be towards centralization around Aggregators. When there is no friction, control shifts from gatekeepers controlling supply to Aggregators controlling demand. To that end, by pioneering Libra, building what will almost certainly be the first wallet for the currency, and bringing to bear its unmatched network for facilitating payments, Facebook is betting it will offer the best experience for digital currency flows, giving it power not by controlling Libra but rather by controlling the most users of Libra.

2022-01-29:

Facebook announced in 2019 with enormous fanfare that it was going to launch a stablecoin and work closely with all of the relevant regulators blah blah blah, and it went to the Federal Reserve and said “what do we need to do to launch a stablecoin,” and the Fed said “you must bring me the egg of a dragon and the tears of a unicorn,” and now the Facebook stablecoin is shutting down. One of the largest companies in the world devoted millions of dollars to figuring out how to launch a stablecoin and concluded that it was impossible. It is demonstrably not impossible! Tether did it! Tether has a hugely successful stablecoin! Tether does not care at all about working closely with all of the relevant regulators! That’s why!

APA Meeting Photo-Essay

You know how drug companies pay 6 or 7 figures for 30-second television ads just on the off chance that someone with the relevant condition might be watching? You know how they employ drug reps to flatter, cajole, and even seduce doctors who might prescribe their drug? Well, it turns out that having 15000 psychiatrists in 1 building sparks a drug company feeding frenzy that makes piranhas look sedate by comparison. Every flat surface is covered in drug advertisements. And after the flat surfaces are gone, the curved surfaces, and after the curved surfaces, giant rings hanging from the ceiling.

Tesla selfdrving

In shadow testing, a car is being driven by a human or a human with autopilot. A new revision of the autopilot software is also present on the vehicle, receiving data from the sensors but not taking control of the car in any way. Rather, it makes decisions about how to drive based on the sensors, and those decisions can be compared to the decisions of a human driver or the older version of the autopilot. If there is a decision — the new software decides to zig where the old one zags, or the new software cruises on when the human hits the brakes, an attempt can be made to figure out how different the decisions were, and how important that difference is. Some portion of those incidents can be given to human beings to examine and learn if the new software is making a mistake. If there is a mistake, it can be marked to be fixed, and the testing continues.

User Input is an error:

Elon Musk views any human user intervention is an error situation for the Tesla Autopilot. Elon means that whenever a human has to take control from the Tesla Autopilot system this is indicating an error that must be fixed for a future fully autonomous car.

Teslas improve with use:

Most of the systems we currently use aren’t built to improve through use. They have locked in performance and capabilities. These systems can only improve through revisions and patches made by technical experts. That approach is on the way out. Systems can now be improved operationally …. Further, for the most complex activities, this will be the only type of system you will be able to buy.

Let me guess, the media won’t be falling over themselves to report on these instances where the tesla autopilot saved lives.

Doctors told Neally later that he’d suffered a pulmonary embolism. They told him he was lucky to have survived. If you ask Neally, however, he’ll tell you he was lucky to be driving a Tesla. As he writhed in the driver’s seat, the vehicle’s software negotiated 30 highway km to a hospital just off an exit ramp. He manually steered it into the parking lot and checked himself into the emergency room, where he was promptly treated. By night’s end he had recovered enough to go home.

Another analysis on the Tesla software disruption:

Tesla’s first bet is that it will solve the vision-only problem before the other sensors get small and cheap, and that it will solve all the rest of the autonomy problems by then as well. This is strongly counter-consensus. It hopes to do it the harder way before anyone else does it the easier way. That is, it’s entirely possible that Waymo, or someone else, gets autonomy to work in 202x with a $1000 or $2000 LIDAR and vision sensor suite and Tesla still doesn’t have it working with vision alone.

The second bet is that Tesla will be able to get autonomy working with enough of a lead to benefit from a strong winner takes all effect – ‘more cars means more data means better autonomy means more cars’. After all, even if Tesla did get the vision-only approach working, it doesn’t necessarily follow that no-one else would. Hence, the bet is that autonomous capability will not be a commodity.

This video from 2014 is what happens when you improve cars at the speed of the software industry. very very impressive.

Being able to update the fleet isn’t just useful for selfdriving

Researchers Hacked a Model S, But Tesla’s Already Released a Patch If you were CEO of a car manufacturer, which of these headlines would you rather were written about you? The first speaks of a tired, old manufacturing model where fixes take months and involve expense and inconvenience. The second speaks of a nimble model more reminiscent of a smartphone than a car

Cancelled Singularity

So just how cancelled is the singularity? To review: population growth increases technological growth, which feeds back into the population growth rate in a cycle that reaches infinity in finite time. But since population can’t grow infinitely fast, this pattern breaks off after a while. The Industrial Revolution tried hard to compensate for the “missing” population; it invented machines. Using machines, an individual could do an increasing amount of work. We can imagine making eg tractors as an attempt to increase the effective population faster than the human uterus can manage. It partly worked.