there’s no more users or minutes in the day, so tech will have to pivot to lower growth, lower margin industries.
Tag: analysis
World 2.0
World 1.0 World 2.0 110 successive months of job growth 10M jobless claims in 2 weeks 10 year bull market across sectors Winners and losers with extreme outcome inequality Full employment 30% unemployment Base rate thinking First principles thinking Physical Digital Office by default Remote by default Office for work Office for connection, community, ecosystem, makerspaces Suit, tie, wristwatch, business card Good lighting, microphone, webcam, home office background Commute + traffic jams Home + family Last km Only km Restaurants Groceries + delivery $4 toast Sourdough starter Walkscore Speedtest Cities Internet $100k for college Not paying $100k for a webinar City Countryside YIMBY NIMBY Internal issues Exogenous shock Lots of little problems One big problem Stupid bullshit Actual issues Too much technology Too little technology Complacency Action Years Days Policy Capacity Ideology Competence Assume some government competence Assume zero government competence Institutions Ghost ships WHO Who? Trusted institutions Trusted people Globalization Decoupling Just-in-time Stockpile Tail risk is kooky Tail risk is mainstream NATO Asia Boomers most powerful Boomers most vulnerable Productivity growth collapse Economic collapse Social services Democrat UBI Communist Propaganda Propaganda Deficit hawks MMT Corporate debt Government debt Techlash Tech a pillar of civilization and lifeline to billions Break up Amazon Don’t break up Amazon!!! Avoiding social issues Avoiding layoffs Sports Esports Phone is a cigarette Phone is oxygen Resource depletion $20 oil, $0.75 watt solar, <$100/kwh batteries Stasis Change Low volatility High volatility Design Logistics Extrovert Introvert Open Closed 20th century 21st century
Selfdriving Investment
self-driving is an 8T / year opportunity, and some pioneers now feel that the ground was a mistake, and personal transport is going to move to the air. Sebastian Thrun, the most respected pioneer in the self-driving car space, has largely abandoned it and now preaches that the air is where the action will be, thanks to computerized electric vertical take-off aircraft. Air travel offers almost unlimited “lanes” of traffic in 3 dimensions, with trivial costs in infrastructure compared to the ground and is considerably faster. This is just one of the things which might happen when you start trying to predict decades out. There are others which people are yet to think of which may change all these numbers in even more dramatic ways.
Complexity & Innovation
tasks are so complicated that innovation suffers. by the time smart people have mastered a task, they’re too old to take risks.
Internet of beefs
The standard pattern of conflict on the IoB is depressingly predictable. A mook takes note of a casus belli in the news cycle (often created or co-opted by a knight, and referred to on the IoB as the outrage cycle), and heads over to their favorite multiplayer online battle arena (Twitter being the most important MOBA) to join known mook allies to fight stereotypically familiar but often unknown interchangeable mook foes.
Chinese & Their Government
Why do so many people feel that the Chinese can’t possibly be OK with their government or society? It seems that many in West deem the current Chinese government/society as wrong and that any “right-thinking” person would agree and join in the fight.
First, I’ll look at the gap in political culture between China and the liberal Western democracies, especially the United States. I’ll argue that there is little appreciation among most WEIRD individuals — that is, Western, Educated people from Industrialized, Rich, and Developed nations — for just how highly contingent political norms they take for granted really are from an historical perspective. I’ll sketch the outlines of the major historical currents that had to converge for these ideas to emerge in the late 18th century. Then, I’ll compare this very exceptional experience with that of China, which only embraced and began to harness those engines of Western wealth and power — science, industrialization, state structures capable of total mobilization of manpower and capital — much later. And late to the game, China suffered for over a century the predations of imperial powers, most notably Japan. Hopefully, I’ll show why it was that liberalism never really took hold, why it was that Chinese intellectuals turned instead to authoritarian politics to address the urgent matters of the day, and why authoritarian habits of mind have lingered on.
Next, I’ll argue that a lot of unexamined hubris lies not only behind the belief that all people living under authoritarian political systems should be willing to make monumental sacrifices to create liberal democratic states but also behind the belief that it can work at all, given the decidedly poor record of projects for liberal democratic transformation in recent years, whether American-led or otherwise. It’s important to see what the world of recent years looks like through Beijing’s windows, and to understand the extent to which Beijing’s interpretation of that view is shared by a wide swath of China’s citizenry.
Finally, I’ll look at the role of media in shaping perspectives of China in the Western liberal democracies and in other states. A very small number of individuals — reporters for major mainstream media outlets posted to China, plus their editors — wield a tremendous amount of influence over how China is perceived by ordinary Anglophone media consumers. It’s important to know something about the optical properties of the lens through which most of us view China.
Soleimani’s Death
General Soleimani was the commander of the Quds Force, an external unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose primary activities were outside Iran’s borders. He was particularly adept at creating militias manned by recruits from across the Middle East and South Asia. The model was Hezbollah in Lebanon, where in the early 1980s Iran organized the local Shiite community and created a lethal terrorist organization that would commit acts of violence on its behalf. This policy had 2 major advantages. First, it gave Iran a unique ability to assert its influence over disorderly politics in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria while maintaining a kind of plausible deniability. Second, it allowed Iran to wage through proxies a campaign of violence responsible for the deaths of 100s of US troops during the civil war in Iraq. Iran’s position in all those countries was already precarious. The regime could ill afford the vast imperial project that it undertook since the US invasion of Iraq. It is struggling to meet its domestic budgetary needs and has been reducing its subsidies to its militias. The assassination of Soleimani is unlikely to reverse any of those trends.
Doctor delusions
Your patients’ last doctor was worse than you. Your patients love you Patients often come to you, but never leave you You’ve probably successfully treated most of your patients You know what you know, but you don’t know what you don’t know Your victories belong to you, your failures belong to Nature You do a good job satisfying your own values
Automation Crisis?
Even if nearly all currently existing jobs will eventually be automated, as we progress toward that point new jobs will continue to be created for humans, preventing the kind of mass unemployment or low wages that might be expected, as long as the market has time to adjust (which isn’t necessarily the case– if the pace of automating jobs were to speed up enough, we could still see a crisis.) However, once machines surpass human capabilities for a low enough price in all jobs, the entire economy will change and something else will take its place. What that is we can’t really say– our economic models break down, and the future becomes even more difficult to predict. Beyond this point, we don’t even know to what extent humans are still guiding the course of civilization, let alone how employment will work.
Amazon market share
Running the numbers, Amazon has 35% of US ecommerce. But, it competes with physical retailers as well – it competes with Macy’s, Walmart and Barnes & Noble. On that basis, Amazon’s real market share of its real target market is closer to 6% (it’s 2/3 the size of Walmart)