Tag: analysis

Microsoft should become a services company

WHAT SHOULD MICROSOFT DO?

  1. Choose between devices and services.
  2. Abandon devices.
  3. Embrace services.
  4. Fork Android and offer a version of AOSP (Android Open Source Project) with Microsoft services, app store (more on this below), and, most importantly, patent protection to Chinese manufacturers.
  5. Build an AOSP Play Store with word-for-word copies

this is very insightful, especially the part about patents being a moat against chinese manufacturers cleaning up worldwide: once they leave the lax IP of china behind, they are vulnerable to lawsuits. this is perhaps the real reason behind “rockstar”, a coalition of google competitors huddling together for protection.

2014 predictions

2014 predictions
every year, a few friends and i indulge in a little predicting (and then come back to it 1 year later). here are mine, i’d be interested to hear yours:

Whole genome sequencing becomes available for $1000
The supreme court rules that large scale surveillance is constitutional
Governments around the world do the same, under NSA envy, while also passing opportunistic privacy legislation
A Chinese site passes fb in traffic
1m spatial / 4h temporal resolution satellite pictures (cubesats) become commercially available
2 of the also-ran mobile os fold
NLP reaches the text understanding of a third grader
2 attacks by apt against commercial targets in the us create billions of damage
The number of detected extrasolar planets soars past 10000
A utility enters bankruptcy due to the price of solar becoming competitive with coal for the first time
Conversational uis pass the Turing test 80% of the time under a time limit of 5min
It will be possible for < 10m$ to send a message to the personal devices of 5b people within 24h. (What would it say?)
A service reaches 500m users within 1 year of launch
Popular opinion blames technology instead of banksters for the problems of the 99%
2 teams complete the second DARPA robotics challenge with the max number of points possible

Really cheap Android

it does raise the question what the internet of things will run on. real time os like qnx seem too limited to be of much value. so perhaps android?

The deeper issue, though, is that estimating tablet sales in this way is a little like trying to estimate global car sales by working out how many internal combustion engines are being made, and how many tires, but not adjusting for motorbikes, cranes, outdoor generators or 18 wheelers. Lots of ‘tablet’ chips and ‘tablet’ screens do not actually end up in tablets.

Europe

One of my favorite topics and in the end the reason why I left Europe.

One doesn’t have to have a US-centric view of privacy, competition policy, or free speech to notice the dissonance between European mores and the digital economy. One assumes Europeans want to enjoy the benefits of the Internet, but they also seem consumed with ensuring that nothing of the old order is changed—let alone destroyed—in the process. They are the continental incarnation of what Virginia Postrel calls stasis—they are unwilling to accept the tradeoffs that come with progress and instead hopelessly try to plan around all discomfort.

2013-04-10: Remember Quaero, the search engine just like real search engines, but with more european commission? Apparently someone forgot to shut the project down and they are proudly working on a human adventure
2013-04-11: Economies in Europe don’t have the flexibility to deal with the double challenge of globalization and automation, so they’ll shrink a lot.
2015-06-19: Why Europe can’t have nice things.

Americans tend to act in a more rational and less emotional way about the goods and services they consume, because it’s not tied up with their national and regional identities. In Europe, stability is prized. Europeans are conservative with a small c. They pretty much like things the way they are

2018-03-26: European protectionism

Using a new survey, we show that the dispersion of marginal products across firms in the European Union is 2x as large as that in the United States. Reducing it to the US level would increase EU GDP by more than 30%. Alternatively, removing barriers between industries and countries would raise EU GDP by at least 25%.

2018-07-20: European Commission really hates innovation.

The European Commission continues to be a bit too cavalier about denying companies — well, Google, mostly — the right to monetize the products they spend billions of dollars at significant risk to develop; this was my chief objection to last year’s Google Shopping case. I am concerned that the Commissions’ publicly released reasoning doesn’t seem to grasp exactly how Android has developed, the choices Google made, and why.

2021-03-04: Anemic GDP growth, or even shrinking

The average European is ~33% or more worse off than the average American, and it’s getting worse.


2021-03-05: More regulatory nonsense

What people making these calls — and these laws — need to be more honest about, though, is that they killing competition. If you want to ensure that Twitter wins in audio, or that Facebook wins everywhere else, then elevating privacy over everything else, ignoring both tradeoffs (like killing competition in social networks) and facts on the ground (like the reality that your contacts have long since ceased to be private), is an excellent way to accomplish exactly that. Look no further than ecommerce.
Shopify, 1 of the most exciting companies in tech and the seeming leader of The Anti-Amazon Alliance, effectively moving into Facebook’s garden, because the web is increasingly a barren wasteland for small businesses. The cause is Apple: its approach to cookies makes platform-based web storefronts increasingly difficult to monetize effectively (Shop Pay performed magic in this regard), and its attack on “tracking” — which goes far beyond the IDFA — makes it increasingly impossible to acquire users in 1 place and convert them in another. The solution is to do user acquisition and user conversion all in 1 app — i.e. on Facebook — which is why Shopify is helping merchants move off the web and onto Facebook.

2022-12-14: A good summary why there’s no innovation in Europe

  • Talented people have a choice of careers. In Europe we steadfastly underpay technologists. Many people that really really want to get into engineering and programming continue to do so anyhow. A larger class however gets swayed by better paying jobs in financial engineering and other non-productive shenanigans. The response here to far higher US salaries for technical people is always that money is not the only factor. This is true. However, the OTHER factor of work is being appreciated and valued, and we also do not offer that! In Europe we outsource technology, as we don’t really consider it a core activity.
  • Not only do we not appreciate technologists, we also penalize founders. Banks, tax agencies and even family members distrust startups and will make life difficult for you.
  • For better or worse, here in Europe we are fond of business plans that somehow make sense. Blue sky “let’s launch this and I’m sure we’ll eventually find sufficient rent seeking or surveillance possibilities to one day make money” things don’t fly too well here.
    • Specifically, I’ve found that in the US it is quite acceptable to discuss plans that revolve around eventually screwing over your customers when they aren’t in a position to leave
    • In addition, European investors and entrepreneurs don’t tend to see their ventures as ’lottery tickets’ that might pay off. We like to see things costed with at least a theoretical path to profits
  • Related, it really is the case that (on average) US entrepreneurs are more ruthless and competitive than European ones. The flip side of this is that any nastiness hinders trust which makes it harder to build partnerships.

2023-07-17: Europeans are getting poorer.

The eurozone economy grew 6% over the past 15 years, compared with 82% for the US. That has left the average EU country poorer per head than every US state except Idaho and Mississippi. If the current trend continues, by 2035 the gap between economic output per capita in the US and EU will be as large as that between Japan and Ecuador today.
Spending on high-end groceries has collapsed. Germans consumed 52 kg of meat per person in 2022, 8% less than the previous year and the lowest level since calculations began in 1989.

No one saw this coming

The big news is just how much the middle of the predictability spectrum is growing. Smart people are finding clever new ways of generating better data, identifying and unpacking biases, and sharing information unimaginable 20 or even 10 years ago. The result: A growing range of human activity has moved from the world of “analysis-by-gut-check” to “analysis by evidence.”

predictions are getting better across the board, except in intelligence, due to secrecy and turf wars. this is excellent news as it will improve policy, economy and society.