Tag: analysis

Dutch Agriculture

The Netherlands is a small, densely populated country. It’s bereft of almost every resource long thought to be necessary for large-scale agriculture. Yet it’s the globe’s number 2 exporter of food as measured by value, second only to the United States, which has 270x its landmass. How on Earth have the Dutch done it? That copious output is made all the more remarkable by the other side of the balance sheet: inputs. 20 years ago, the Dutch made a national commitment to sustainable agriculture under the rallying cry “2x as much food using 50% as many resources.” Since 2000, van den Borne and many of his fellow farmers have reduced dependence on water for key crops by 90 %. They’ve almost completely eliminated the use of chemical pesticides on plants in greenhouses, and since 2009 Dutch poultry and livestock producers have cut their use of antibiotics by 60%.

The way in which the Netherlands uses architecture to feed the world is best seen from above. Dutch agriculture is defined by vast landscapes of greenhouses which dominate the architectural landscape of South Holland. In total, the country contains greenhouses in an area 56% larger than the island of Manhattan.

2019-10-12:

1 proposition for the future of the countryside can be found in the Netherlands. On the Hook of Holland, a vast sea of greenhouses surrounds vernacular Dutch farmhouses, alive with high-tech, innovative food production. Despite its small size, and dense population, the Netherlands is the world’s second-largest exporter of food. Such an accreditation would not be possible using conventional farming methods. But the Dutch countryside is far from conventional. In place of plowed furrows and green grazing fields, there are extraordinary greenhouse complexes with climate-controlled farms, some spanning over 1 km2.

2022-05-09:

Over the past 60 years, greenhouse production has been focused on yield. If you compare a field in Spain with greenhouses in the Netherlands, we are more sustainable because we are using agricultural land more optimally. If you want the same yield in Spain, you need 20x as much land. But the best part of the story is because we grow under controlled conditions, we can use biological controls. There are hardly any pesticides used in greenhouse production, but it’s also more efficient with water. The 80 kilograms per meter in the Netherlands is achieved with 4x less water than the 4 kilograms of tomatoes in Spain.

but there’s a claim hydroponics don’t “taste” good:

Soil is fundamental for preserving an ecosystem, and for delivering flavor and nutrition. There is a lot of complex biology in soil, including fungal and bacterial networks, which enable the plant to absorb these micronutrients. When you farm hydroponically, it’s a very inert environment where you are growing from a substrate and you’re adding 5 inputs. It’s very hard, almost impossible, to argue that a plant grown in a hydroponic environment has access to the same nutrition as a plant grown in healthy soils.

2060 Energy Scenarios

The World Energy Scenarios comprise 3 scenarios for the energy sector up to 2060 referred to as Unfinished Symphony, Modern Jazz and Hard Rock. Solar and wind energy account for only 4% of power generation in 2014, but by 2060 it will account for 20% to 39% of power generation. In Unfinished Symphony, strong policy supported by hydro and nuclear capacity additions will allow intermittent renewables to reach 39% of electricity generation by 2060. Large-scale pumped hydro and compressed air storage, battery innovation, and grid integration provide dependable capacity to balance intermittency. Modern Jazz sees intermittent renewables reach 30% of generation enabled by distributed systems, digital technologies, and battery innovation. For both resources (solar and wind), the largest additions will be seen in China, India, Europe, and North America. With less capacity for infrastructure build-out, Hard Rock sees the lowest penetration, with solar and wind generation reaching 20% by 2060.

Transportation-as-a-Service

any discussion of the threat self-driving cars poses to Uber tends to imagine a world where there are magically 10Ks if not millions of self-driving cars everywhere immediately. That simply isn’t practical from a pure logistics standpoint; the time it will take to build all of those cars — and, crucially, get government approval — is time Uber has to catch up.

Moreover, it’s not at all clear that Google will be willing to make the sort of investment necessary to build a self-driving fleet that could take on Uber. The company’s recent scale-back of Google Fiber is instructive in this regard: it is very difficult for a company built on search advertising margins to stomach the capital costs entailed in building out a fleet capable of challenging Uber in more than 1 or 2 markets.

Finally, as the incumbent in the transportation-as-a-service space Uber has the advantage of only needing to be good-enough. To the degree the company can build out UberPool and UberCommute, they can ensure that their own self-driving cars get first consideration from consumers trained to open their app whenever they are out and about.

Direct To Consumer

More broadly, while razors with their huge gross margins and high replacement rate were a particularly good match for the Dollar Shave Club subscription model, I suspect this sort of disruption will not be a one-off: the Internet (and e-commerce) has so profoundly changed the economics of business that it is only a matter of time before other product categories are impacted, with all the second order effects that entails. Perhaps the biggest of these second order effects is on value, and that’s where I come back to this purchase price: the tech community is celebrating the massive return for Dollar Shave Club’s investors, but $1 billion for a 16% unit share of a market dominated by a brand that cost $57 billion is startlingly small. Indeed, that’s why buying Dollar Shave Club was never an option for P&G: even if their model is superior P&G’s shareholders would never permit the abandonment of what made the company so successful for so long; a company so intently focused on growing revenue is incapable of slicing one of their most profitable lines by half or more.

The Facebook of ecommerce

That kind of scalable automation, though, could also go in completely the opposite direction for some things – away from any kind of decision at all. You put an Amazon Dash on the machine, or perhaps it can measure what you’re used and re-order by itself, and so you in effect subscribe to the product, and once done you’ll probably never bother to change brand. Or, say to Siri or Alexa or Google Assistant ‘Hey, order some more soap powder’ and the same brand is added to your next delivery. (And in both cases your choice of channel is just as now locked in as your choice of soap powder, once you’ve set the default.) Either way, an impulse purchase in one of 2 or 3 retailers you might have stopped in at, based on real-estate portfolio on one hand and eye-level placement and brand equity on the other, shifts to auto-renewal or a natural language parser. Given that P&G and Unilever’s combined ad budget is larger than the global revenue of the recorded music industry, this means that subscription soap powder could be a much bigger deal than subscription music. What will you have to pay to be Google Assistant’s default choice of dishwasher tablets?

Westeros is Poorly Designed

people think that it’s a particularly well-crafted setting. It is not. Westeros is shoddily assembled as far as political, cultural, or demographic realism goes. There is too much dynastic stability, too little cultural, linguistic, and ethnic diversity, the basic size of the world seems to change to fit the immediate exigencies of the plot, the cities and armies are implausibly large in many cases