We’re on the cusp of the fastest deepest most consequential transformation not just of any 1 sector yes but also of civilization. Over the next 10 years we’re going to have a convergence that is going to disrupt the 5 foundational sectors of the economy.

Disruption happens when there is a convergence of technologies. That convergence opens up a new possibility space. 11 years ago Tesla and other companies came into the ev space and solar companies and so on. That’s when the opportunity space opened up.

In 2014 I projected the cost of lithium-ion batteries out to 2030. I’m told that that looked insane: $150 per kWh by 2021 is not going to happen. I was told that 100s of times. Guess what, it ended up being a little conservative, it’s actually below that.

In 2014 I said that by 2020 there would be 300 km electric vehicles that would be cheaper than the median new car in America, which of course at the time sounded insane, not going to happen. Folks were predicting 2040s, 2050s before that would happen. Guess what, it did happen.

Internal combustion engine automobiles are going to be wiped out in the 2020s. 95% of passenger km will be electric by about 2030.

If we start today and we finished by 2030 in America it would cost less than $2t to build a 100% solar wind and battery system. Over 10 years that’s less than 1% of GDP.

Milk is 3% solid proteins. All you need is to disrupt that 3% to disrupt the dairy industry. By 2030 the cost of proteins which are brewed locally will be 80% lower than animal proteins so we expect the dairy industry to be pretty much bankrupt by 2030 and livestock meat will follow.

If we put together 3 disruptions, there are dramatic implications. Because the cost of all of these foundational sectors are going down by up to 10x over the next 10-15 years. The cost of the “American dream” in terms of what we consume for energy, transport, food and so on will be $250 a month. This will give us an opportunity to end poverty, inequality, environmental degradation and so on.

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