We’re on the cusp of the fastest deepest most consequential transformation not just of any 1 sector yes but also of civilization. Over the next 10 years we’re going to have a convergence that is going to disrupt the 5 foundational sectors of the economy.
Disruption happens when there is a convergence of technologies. That convergence opens up a new possibility space. 11 years ago Tesla and other companies came into the ev space and solar companies and so on. That’s when the opportunity space opened up.
In 2014 I projected the cost of lithium-ion batteries out to 2030. I’m told that that looked insane: $150 per kWh by 2021 is not going to happen. I was told that 100s of times. Guess what, it ended up being a little conservative, it’s actually below that.
In 2014 I said that by 2020 there would be 300 km electric vehicles that would be cheaper than the median new car in America, which of course at the time sounded insane, not going to happen. Folks were predicting 2040s, 2050s before that would happen. Guess what, it did happen.
Internal combustion engine automobiles are going to be wiped out in the 2020s. 95% of passenger km will be electric by about 2030.
If we start today and we finished by 2030 in America it would cost less than $2t to build a 100% solar wind and battery system. Over 10 years that’s less than 1% of GDP.
Milk is 3% solid proteins. All you need is to disrupt that 3% to disrupt the dairy industry. By 2030 the cost of proteins which are brewed locally will be 80% lower than animal proteins so we expect the dairy industry to be pretty much bankrupt by 2030 and livestock meat will follow.
If we put together 3 disruptions, there are dramatic implications. Because the cost of all of these foundational sectors are going down by up to 10x over the next 10-15 years. The cost of the “American dream” in terms of what we consume for energy, transport, food and so on will be $250 a month. This will give us an opportunity to end poverty, inequality, environmental degradation and so on.
Month: September 2021
Differentiable Rendering
this approach can reduce polygon count by 200x with very small losses.
Multicellular Emergence
Environments favoring clumpy growth are all that’s needed to quickly transform single-celled yeast into complex multicellular organisms.
During the first 100 days, the clusters in all 15 of the tubes 2x in size. Then they mostly plateaued until the 250th day, when the sizes in 2 of the tubes that didn’t use oxygen started to creep upward again. Around day 350, Bozdağ noticed something in 1 of those tubes. There were clusters he could see with the naked eye. “As an evolutionary biologist … you think it’s a chance event. Somehow they got big, but they are going to lose out against the small ones in the long run — that is my thinking. I didn’t really talk about this with Will at the time.” But then clusters showed up in the 2nd tube. And around day 400, the 3 other tubes of mutants that couldn’t use oxygen kicked into gear, and soon all 5 tubes had massive structures in them, topping out at about 20000X their initial size. “I wasn’t honestly sure if this was a system that would saturate at 1000 cells. We have to continue evolving them and see what they can do. We need to see, if we push these guys as far as we can for decades, for 10000s of generations. If we don’t do that, I will always regret not having taken the opportunity. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, to try to push a nascent multicellular critter to become more complex and see how far we can take them.”
2022-11-05: Multicellularity has metabolic benefits
the hollow spheres were Vibrio’s solution to the complicated challenge of eating at sea. An individual bacterium can produce only so much enzyme; breaking down alginate goes much more quickly when Vibrio can cluster together. It’s a winning strategy — up to a point. If there are too many Vibrio, the number of bacteria outstrips the available alginate.
The bacteria resolved the conundrum by developing a more complex life cycle. The bacteria live in 3 distinct phases. At first, an individual cell divides repeatedly and the daughter cells huddle in growing clumps. In the second phase, the clumped cells rearrange themselves into a hollow sphere. The outermost cells glue themselves together, forming something rather like a microscopic snow globe. The cells inside become more mobile, swimming about as they consume the trapped alginate. In the third phase, the brittle outer layer ruptures, releasing the well-fed inner cells to start the cycle anew.
By altering their life cycle to include a multicellular stage, the bacteria can digest the alginate efficiently: Their numbers increase, and the hollow shell helps to concentrate the enzymes. Meanwhile, the structure of the community prevents too many cells from being born. The cells in the shell lose the opportunity to reproduce, but their DNA lives on in the next generation anyway, since all the cells in the orb are clones.

Sodom Air Burst
people may have passed down accounts of the spectacular disaster as oral history over generations, providing the basis for the biblical story of Sodom and Gomorrah—which, like Tall el-Hammam, were supposedly located near the Dead Sea.
The proposed airburst was larger than the 1908 explosion over Tunguska, Russia, where a ~ 50-m-wide bolide detonated with ~ 1000× more energy than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. A city-wide ~ 1.5-m-thick carbon-and-ash-rich destruction layer contains peak concentrations of shocked quartz (~ 5–10 GPa); melted pottery and mudbricks; diamond-like carbon; soot; Fe- and Si-rich spherules; CaCO3 spherules from melted plaster; and melted platinum, iridium, nickel, gold, silver, zircon, chromite, and quartz. Heating experiments indicate temperatures exceeded 2000 °C. Amid city-side devastation, the airburst demolished 12+ m of the 4-to-5-story palace complex and the massive 4-m-thick mudbrick rampart, while causing extreme disarticulation and skeletal fragmentation in nearby humans. An airburst-related influx of salt (~ 4 wt.%) produced hypersalinity, inhibited agriculture, and caused a ~ 300–600-year-long abandonment of ~ 120 regional settlements within a > 25-km radius. Tall el-Hammam may be the second oldest city/town destroyed by a cosmic airburst/impact, after Abu Hureyra, Syria, and possibly the earliest site with an oral tradition that was written down (Genesis). Tunguska-scale airbursts can devastate entire cities/regions and thus, pose a severe modern-day hazard.
2022-02-01: while the Sodom Air burst has been debunked, there’s other interesting meteorites in history:
Combinatorial Cell Signaling
In particular, in systems where ligands bind uniquely to receptors, the number of types of ligands limits how many different cell types or targets can be uniquely addressed. In a combinatorial system, different pairings between a small number of ligands and receptors can specify a much larger number of targets. The differences between the pairings also permit graded effects rather than an all-or-nothing response.