Rural change

Increasing farm productivity has been the dominant force shaping rural America over the past 150 years. Improving transportation has offset some of the population decline (and its ill effects) by improving access to jobs and services, especially near cities. Improved communications, increasing acceptance of remote work, and new transportation options are poised to turn every rural community into a bedroom community for cities, providing more income opportunities. Physical transportation systems like VTOL taxis, electric airplanes, and HyperLoops take things to the next level by providing access to in-person city jobs and services. As the cost of animal protein declines, farming and ranching will see shifts. High-density grazing can increase the productivity of grasslands, reducing the demand for feed from cropland. It also produces healthier cows that need less finishing in feedlots to taste good. Further farm consolidation and conversion of cropland to grazing land seem likely. The impact will vary widely by location. In Georgia, where cotton is the dominant crop, and Atlanta is a powerhouse city, negatives will be few and far between. High plains land that benefits from improved grazing techniques could flourish. In an isolated river valley in Iowa with land ideally suited for industrial production of corn and soybeans, things might not be so pleasant for big farms. Life could improve for the median resident that has more income earning options. The worst-case scenario is that demand for traditional animal products falls while improvement in work options ends up being limited. The worst-case scenario seems much less likely with StarLink coming online and COVID-19 normalizing remote work. While farm operations will probably consolidate, the average land parcel size could decline as every rural community becomes a bedroom community. Small plots could proliferate. If farming and grazing acreage declines, negative environmental impacts could result. In previously forested places, a return makes sense. But in the high plains, residents may have to organize roaming ruminant herds or prescribed burns to maintain their prairie and prevent desertification. Things rarely change very fast in rural communities, but the coming decades could be a lot more fun and pleasant than the past 15.

Leave a comment