Advanced aliens really are out there, and we have enough data to say roughly where they are in space and time, and when we will meet or see them. In our model, GCs are born according to a volume-based power law, and once born they simply expand at a constant speed relative to local materials. We show that for nontrivial powers this power law is a reasonable approximation to a more realistic model. This expansion speed and the 2 parameters of this power law are the only 3 parameters of our model, each of which can be estimated from data to within 4x. The hard-steps in Earth history literature helps to estimate the power, and our current date helps to estimate the power law timescale. Furthermore, the fact that we do not now see large alien-controlled volumes in our sky, even though they should control much of the universe volume now, gives us our last estimate, that aliens expand at > 50% of lightspeed. Given estimates of all 3 parameters, we have in this paper shown many model predictions regarding alien timing, spacing, appearance, and the durations until we see or meet them. And we have shown how optimism regarding humanity’s future is in conflict with optimism regarding SETI efforts. Being especially simple, our model is unlikely to be an exact representation of reality. So future research might explore more realistic variations. For example, one might more precisely account for the recent exponential expansion of the universe, and for deviations between a realistic appearance function and our power law approximation. Instead of being uniform across space, the GCs birth rate might be higher within galaxies, higher within larger galaxies, and follow their typical spatial correlations. A GC expansion might take a duration to bring its full effect to any one location, and the GC expansion speed might vary and depend on local geographies of resources and obstacles. Finally, GC subvolumes might sometimes stop expanding or die, either spontaneously or in response to local disturbances.

2023-04-11: A good summary of the argument

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