Recent digs in the forest steppes of Russia have found a large circular structure built over 25 ka ago, using material from up to 60 mammoths. The labor invested here is much less than needed for the construction of Göbekli Tepe and, as a result, isn’t in and of itself sufficient evidence of a complex society—but this is no temporary structure.

The old paradigm of agriculture and civilization beginning after the last ice age, and proceeding on a materially overdetermined set course of progress, seems to rest on increasingly shaky theoretical grounds. As a consequence, the hypotheses of what we expect to find and what kind of digs we want to fund have to be revised as well. Not just because our timelines of monumental architecture and complex society have been thrown into question by Göbekli Tepe, but because of evidence of early cultivation, such as small-scale farming 23 ka ago at the Ohalo II site near the Sea of Galilee. Over 10 ka prior to when we had first thought agriculture began, at least some of our ancient ancestors had gathered over 140 plant species in 1 place, evidently sowing and harvesting early edible cereals and using rudimentary tools to turn them into flour.

With both agriculture and monumental construction much older than what was thought before, we should likely rethink the origins of urban life as well. How old might settlements of 100s or 1000s of people be? How frequently did such civilizations arise, only to fall and be forgotten? I strongly suspect they might be 8 ka older than we believed previously. I’m happy to take a Long Bet with a qualified challenger skeptical of such a claim, that in 20 years, we will know of at least 1 such permanent settlement older than 20 ka. Perhaps such a bet can, in its small way, help stimulate some interest in hunting for such sites.

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