all the gnashing of teeth about china overlooks a very awkward data point: the number of US companies that can compete with china can be counted on 1 hand, and most of them are run by elon musk. good for him, but terrible for the US and its infuriating complacency.

If Tesla meets or exceeds Battery Day 2030 goals then Tesla (and the USA) will have the dominant share of future lithium battery production. If Tesla broadly misses the Battery Day goals then China will maintain 70% share of the world lithium battery market.

Many in the space industry will talk up Blue Origin or United Launch Alliance as competitors for the future of Space. This makes no sense.

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