COVID-19 predictions

  1. 75% chance that there will be a new wave peaking in March or April, with a peak at least half again as high as the preceding trough.
  2. 66% chance that sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US.
  3. 55% chance that later, when we have great evidence on this, we’ll find that P/M, Novavax, AZ, and J&J all cut deaths from all extant strains by at least 80%.
  4. 60% chance that in 2022, public health officials recommend that you get “your yearly COVID shot”, even if you have previously been vaccinated against COVID
  5. 90% chance that on an average day in mid-2022, on an average street in the SF Bay Area, fewer than 10% of people will be wearing face masks.
  6. 50% chance that sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again, and that whatever fast-track lane they get takes less than 3 months between creating the vaccine and it being approved for general use.

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