Month: February 2021

TikTok remixing

TikTok took a lot of friction out of generating your own content, even though it is super derivative, and kind of dumb.

TikTok launches seemingly a new video effect or filter every week. I regularly log in and see creators using some filter I’ve never heard of, and some of them are just flat out bonkers. What creators can accomplish with some of these filters I can’t even fathom how I’d replicate in something like the Adobe Creative Suite.

COVID-19 predictions

  1. 75% chance that there will be a new wave peaking in March or April, with a peak at least half again as high as the preceding trough.
  2. 66% chance that sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US.
  3. 55% chance that later, when we have great evidence on this, we’ll find that P/M, Novavax, AZ, and J&J all cut deaths from all extant strains by at least 80%.
  4. 60% chance that in 2022, public health officials recommend that you get “your yearly COVID shot”, even if you have previously been vaccinated against COVID
  5. 90% chance that on an average day in mid-2022, on an average street in the SF Bay Area, fewer than 10% of people will be wearing face masks.
  6. 50% chance that sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again, and that whatever fast-track lane they get takes less than 3 months between creating the vaccine and it being approved for general use.

Citi $900m mistake

Last August, Citigroup Inc. wired $900M to some hedge funds by accident. Then it sent a note to the hedge funds saying, oops, sorry about that, please send us the money back. Some did. Others preferred to keep the money. Citi sued them. Yesterday Citi lost, and they got to keep the money. I read the opinion, expecting to learn about the New York legal doctrine of finders keepers—more technically, the “discharge-for-value defense”—and I was not disappointed. But I was also treated to a gothic horror story about software design. I had nightmares all night about checking the wrong boxes on the computer.

See, the “don’t actually send the money” box next to “PRINCIPAL” is checked, but that doesn’t do anything, you have to check 2 other boxes to make it not actually send the money.

Performative politics: 🚮

In much of San Francisco, you can’t walk 6m without seeing a multicolored sign declaring that Black lives matter, kindness is everything and no human being is illegal. Those signs sit in yards zoned for single families, in communities that organize against efforts to add the new homes that would bring those values closer to reality. Poorer families — disproportionately nonwhite and immigrant — are pushed into long commutes, overcrowded housing and homelessness. There is a danger — not just in California, but everywhere — that politics becomes an aesthetic rather than a program. It’s a danger on the right, where Donald Trump modeled a presidency that cared more about retweets than bills. But it’s also a danger on the left, where the symbols of progressivism are often preferred to the sacrifices and risks those ideals demand. California, as the biggest state in the nation, and 1 where Democrats hold total control of the government, carries a special burden. If progressivism cannot work here, why should the country believe it can work anywhere else?

this perfectly describes NYC too. most politics is this kind of tedious and harmful cosplay.

NYC Gems

This is a pretty great and comprehensive list of what makes the city awesome.

Following up our master list of 160 secrets of New York City, we bring to you 160 hidden gems of New York City! Every one of these hidden gems are places for you to discover. Some show the uniqueness and quaintness of New York City’s architecture, others reveal the infrastructure that supports New York or the history hidden in plain sight. Some are simply off-the-beaten path. All, we believe, are hidden gems in their own right. The majority are publicly accessible although some only on limited occasions. Some come from our book about the secrets of Brooklyn, but this list covers all 5 boroughs of the city. Many others come from the archives of Untapped New York and some come from exciting user-generated submissions on our Facebook page. So without further ado, here are the hidden gems of New York City!