Those numbers come out to p-values of less than 10 to the minus 16th, which means that we all pretty much have to stand up take take off our hats – this one’s real. anyone who screens with such antibodies needs to take extreme precautions, because they are clearly at far greater risk of severe disease and death than the run of the population
Month: September 2020
Fused LEO GNSS
continuous assured PNT service over ±60° latitude (covering 99.8% of the world’s population) with positioning performance exceeding traditional GNSS pseudoranging would cost less than 0.8% of downlink capacity for the largest of the new constellations, SpaceX’s Starlink. where previous proposals targeted positioning precision on-par with traditional GNSS pseudoranging (on the order of 3 m), fused LEO GNSS can improve on this by more than an order of magnitude to 20cm
Istanbul island

The Bosporus is 3x busier than the Suez Canal, and getting worse. To resolve marine congestion, Turkey wants to build a ‘second Bosporus‘. The controversial project would alter local geography – and may have unintended consequences.
ICE Carmakers are Screwed
the vertical integration at tesla has only begun, and they’re pulling further ahead from their 5-10 year head start.
Sandy Munro tells you that legacy carmakers will not catch up. They needed to start 5 years ago or earlier. New entrants have a better chance of catching Tesla. Legacy carmakers will have to get rid of factories, unionized employees, have retirement expense obligations and many other issues to make the transition. The dealer network is a problem for the old car companies.
there will probably be another bailout. if you add in the problems with the supply chain (no access to chips), they’ll lose a lot of money in 2021.
AI Math Olympiad
If we can get a computer to have that brilliant idea by simply having 1000s and 1000s of ideas and rejecting all of them until it stumbles on the right 1, maybe we can do the IMO Grand Challenge
China civilization origins
Shimao is now the largest known Neolithic settlement in China with art and technology that came from the northern steppe and would influence future Chinese dynasties.
Together with recent discoveries at other prehistoric sites nearby and along the coast, Shimao is forcing historians to rethink the beginnings of Chinese civilization—expanding their understanding of the geographical locations and outside influences of its earliest cultures. Shimao is one of the most important archaeological discoveries of this century. It gives us a new way of looking at the development of China’s early civilization. Carbon-dating determined that parts of Shimao, as the site is called (its original name is unknown), date back 4300 years, 2000 years before the oldest section of the Great Wall—and 500 years before Chinese civilization took root on the Central Plains, several 100 km to the south.
2023-06-07: The genetic roots go back even further
We now know that the Han, 95% of the citizens of today’s People’s Republic of China, are scions of hunters and foragers who roamed the Yellow and Yangzi river valleys at the end of the last Ice Age, 12 ka BP. Today’s Chinese carry DNA startlingly similar to an individual buried in Tianyun Cave, near modern Beijing, 40 ka BP. China might not have the oldest continuous recorded history (Mesopotamia owns this distinction). But it comes close, and on the far more astonishing scale of 10s of 1000s of years, the Chinese people’s biological continuity knows no parallel.
Ancient Egyptian Baking
The fascinating thing for me as an archaeologist is that Blackley is not an archaeologist. He’s a baker. So he’s approaching this completely differently, and he’s coming up with answers to problems that only a baker would know.
see also the hairdresser doing historical research.
Designer Proteins
the baker lab / rosetta are still going strong, with complementary ML approaches:
The hope is that the next time there’s an outbreak, within 2 days, we’ll have models of candidates
2023-07-13: Protein design is getting real.
10–20% of RFdiffusion’s designs bind to their intended target strongly enough to be useful, compared with less than 1% for earlier, pre-AI methods.Biochemist Matthias Gloegl has been hitting success rates approaching 50%, which means it can take just a week or 2 to come up with working designs, as opposed to months. “It’s really insane”. The latest protein-design tools have proved to be extremely powerful at creating proteins that can do a particular task — so long as that function can be described in terms of a shape, such as the surface of a protein to bind to. Tools such as RFdiffusion aren’t yet able to handle other kinds of specifications, such as making a protein that can carry out a particular reaction regardless of its shape — when “you know what you want but you don’t know what the geometry is”.
Why California is burning
Why is California burning? The experts all know the answer–CA was made to burn and if you don’t do controlled burns, CA will burn uncontrolled. So why doesn’t it happen? Liability law, risk-aversion, rent seeking and vetocracy.
Post-AI Chess
AI Ruined Chess. Now, It’s Making the Game Beautiful Again
Kramnik saw flashes of beauty in how AlphaZero adapted to the new rules. No-castling chess provoked rich new patterns for keeping the king safe. A more extreme change, self-capture chess, in which a player can take their own pieces, proved even more alluring. The rule effectively gives a player more opportunities to sacrifice a piece to get ahead, a tactic considered a hallmark of elegant play for centuries.