The big news is just how much the middle of the predictability spectrum is growing. Smart people are finding clever new ways of generating better data, identifying and unpacking biases, and sharing information unimaginable 20 or even 10 years ago. The result: A growing range of human activity has moved from the world of “analysis-by-gut-check” to “analysis by evidence.”

predictions are getting better across the board, except in intelligence, due to secrecy and turf wars. this is excellent news as it will improve policy, economy and society.

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