Month: April 2009

Carriers are obsolete

Every single change in technology in the past 50 years has had “Stop building carriers!” written all over it. And nobody in the navy brass paid any attention. Let me repeat the key sentence here: Ships currently have no defense against a ballistic missile attack.

2024-01-22: Here we are, 15 years later, and nothing has changed. Like NASA, congress has focused more on spreading the work around than making it competitive

These suggestions seek to maximize competition between shipbuilders and suppliers. Single-use ships and shorter service lives will increase demand for new hulls and stimulate new supply. Ships with loosely coupled systems and modular components are easier for shipyards to integrate (and repair during a war). Testing components early and often makes it easier to qualify new suppliers. Iterative ship classes reduce program risk and the need for risk-tolerant contract structures like cost plus. These changes also make it easier to ramp up production during war.

Features like void spaces for torpedo and mine protection can only work if these competition measures increase productivity. Steel and air may be cheap, but labor is not.

Letting yards fail may be the most politically sensitive change. It will be a disaster if the Navy decides to toughen up on yards but waits until the ship is delivered in poor condition to lay the hammer down. The earlier Naval officers are in the yards and shops identifying problems, the less painful changes for the shipyard will be. Companies can fire bad managers or exit the business while some value remains.

The bottom line is getting officers out of their offices. The rest will follow.

Smalltalk Rejection

Dear Dr. Kay, The program committee thanks you for the submission of your paper “Object Orientation – A New Paradigm of Programming”. Unfortunately your paper has been rejected. To do proper Computer Science, you must evaluate new ideas incrementally. In the future, please avoid excessive novelty.

Glacial Distribution

Those movies then stay exclusive to the premium channels for 15 to 18 months — let me repeat 15 to 18 months! And from there it only gets worse. After the year and a half in premium channel jail, movies then go to the regular cable channels and big networks for airing. As I understand it, some online rentals are again okay during this time, but then, they often go back to the premium channels for a second run. That means they get pulled once again. This whole process often lasts for 7 years or more. It’s only after that time period that movies are really free to be distributed a bunch of different ways. That includes Netflix’s popular Watch Instantly streaming feature — so now you see why the selection of movies on that service is mostly older films.

Consanguinity

Royal inbreeding

From 1516 to 1700, it has been estimated that over 80% of marriages within the Spanish branch of the Habsburg dynasty were consanguineous.

2013-04-26: Cousin Marriage and Democracy. I had no idea this was so common in some parts of the world.

Approximately 0.2% of all marriages are consanguineous in the United States but in India 26.6% marriages are consanguineous, in Saudi Arabia the figure is 38.4% and in Niger, Pakistan and Sudan a majority of marriages are consanguineous. A recent paper finds that consanguinity is strongly negatively correlated with democracy.

2016-03-07: Middle east Cousin marriage. This explains a lot of problems.

Once common practice in Western societies, estimates suggest the Middle East, along with Africa, continue to have the highest levels in the world. In Egypt, around 40% of the population marry a cousin; the last survey in Jordan, admittedly way back in 1992, found that 32% were married to a first cousin; a further 17.3% were married to more distant relatives. Rates are thought to be even higher in tribal countries such as Iraq and the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Kuwait.

2018-03-03: US Cousin Marriage

Taken together, the data show a 50-year lag between the advent of increased familial dispersion and the decline of genetic relatedness between couples. During this time, individuals continued to marry relatives despite the increased distance. From these results, we hypothesize that changes in 19th-century transportation were not the primary cause for decreased consanguinity. Rather, our results suggest that shifting cultural factors played a more important role in the recent reduction of genetic relatedness of couples in Western societies.

2022-12-06: The MFP may have been a big part of why Europe developed differently

the Church’s “Marriage and Family Plan” (MFP), which included features like monogamy in addition to an obsession with preventing broadly-defined incest, had important downstream consequences in practically every aspect of life. Young men would be more likely to find marriage partners since a few high-status leaders could not claim a disproportionate share of women, creating incentives for individuals to be more hard-working and less violent. The power of elders was further reduced by an inability to arrange marriages in ways that would keep wealth and resources within the same family, unlike in Muslim societies where the son of one brother would often be wedded to the daughter of another. When incest taboos extended to 6th cousins, an individual may have had 10k relatives that were off limits in the marriage market. This wouldn’t be a big deal in a modern city, but when most people lived in small villages it would have created major difficulties for anyone trying to find a spouse. This led to a population that was more mobile, less embedded in kinship networks, and ultimately more individualistic.

What is sure to be one of the most surprising findings discussed in the book relates to how rare the individual components of the MFP have been throughout history. According to one database looking at 1200 societies before industrialization, only 5% had newlywed couples start their own households, 8% organized domestic life around nuclear families, 15% had only monogamous marriages, 25% had little or no cousin marriage, and 28% had bilateral descent, meaning that lineages are traced through both the mother and father. Christian Europe under the MFP had all five, which wasn’t true for over 99% of other societies. Today, after the rest of the world has been heavily influenced by Western culture, given its success, it’s easy to lose sight of how unique its mating and familial practices have been in the larger historical context.

People prone to individualism would go on to achieve high rates of urbanization and form guilds, universities, marketplaces, and other voluntary institutions that were based on principles of mutual self-interest and competed with one another. Ultimately, Western Europe would conquer the world on the back of the strengths of these institutions, with democracy and capitalism being arguably the most important among them.